About the Author

Chris Gerlacher

Chris Gerlacher

Christopher Gerlacher is a Lead Writer and contributor for Bonus. He is a versatile and experienced gambling writer with an impressive portfolio who has range from political and legislative pieces to sports and sports betting. He's a devout Broncos fan, for better or for worse, living in the foothills of Arvada, Colorado.

Latest articles

Supreme Court Abortion Ruling Doesn’t Change Midterm Outlook 

June 27, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

After the Supreme Court abortion ruling eliminating the right to abortion, 15 states banned all or most abortions immediately or will ban all or most of them within 30 days. Another five are likely to ban it shortly. Despite this consequential decision, PredictIt’s balance of power market still predicts a Republican House and Senate in […]

Texas Secession Doesn’t Affect PredictIt Balance Of Power Market

June 22, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

Texas State Republican Convention called for a referendum on Texas secession and declared Joe Biden an illegitimate president. Nothing in the Convention seemed to impact PredictIt’s balance of power or presidential markets. It’s not surprising that Texas secession didn’t move PredictIt markets. Secession is a local issue that doesn’t snowball into a national issue. It doesn’t […]

January 6 Hearings Fail To Change PredictIt Markets

June 13, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

The first January 6 hearings were held on Thursday, June 9 and Monday, June 13. These hearings into the origins of the January 6 Capitol riot gave the public new information, including:  Proud Boys’ and Oath Keepers’ instigation of the day’s violence  Police body camera footage of rioters attacking police officers    Testimony from one […]

Why Public Opinion Polls Don’t Necessarily Predict Votes

June 9, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

Public opinion polls can be great snapshots of what the public at large thinks about certain issues. However, a large chunk of the public doesn’t vote. Even in the contentious 2020 election, only 66.8% of eligible Americans voted. The US Census Bureau noted that this election had the “highest voter turnout of the 21st century.”  […]

Five Thinking Traps That Make Political Predictions Fail  

June 3, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

Accurate political predictions are hard to make and rare to come by. There are a few predictive models that work, but even they have potentially fatal flaws. FiveThirtyEight predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the election 302 electoral college votes to 235. She lost 304 to 227. Alan Lichtman’s Keys to the White House model […]

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