2020 US Presidential Election Odds


Joe Biden 61.15% 0.10%
Last Hour 61.07 -0.03
Last 4 Hours 61.19 -0.42
Yesterday 60.70 4.20
Last 7 Day 56.11 1.61
Donald Trump 39.52%
Last Hour 39.55 0.02
Last 4 Hours 39.38 0.63
Yesterday 39.62 -4.05
Last 7 Day 44.00 -1.39
Live Betting Odds Data - 2020 US President

All 2020-09-30 39.52 61.15
Betfair 2020-09-30 38.6 60.8
Betway 2020-09-30 44.4 62.1
PredictIt 2020-09-30 42.0 63.0
Total Bet over $ 132,539,800

Odds and amount wagered are calculated using our aggregated weighted index of odds offered by Betfair, Betway and Predict It.
Last Updated: 2020-09-30 20:00:30 PDT

Odds are updated every 15 minutes.

Latest US Election Odds News for September 2020:

The final week of September kicked off with a bombshell New York Times report on President Donald Trump’s taxes published Sunday, Sept. 27. The Times obtained nearly 20 years worth of the president’s tax returns, which blows several large holes in his carefully crafted billionaire business genius persona.

For starters, the Times reports that Trump paid no federal income taxes whatsoever in 10 of the last 15 years. In both 2016 and 2017, his first two years in office, he paid $750 in federal income taxes. He’s also facing a protracted battle with the I.R.S. that could cost him as much as $100 million, and he has further mortgage and debt liabilities which are coming due over the next two years totaling more than $300 million.

The report goes into Trump’s many business dealings in great detail, and overall paints a portrait of a man who has financed his billionaire lifestyle with a complex web of claimed financial losses that has enabled him to avoid paying any federal income taxes for most of the last 15 years.

It also reveals how many of his businesses, including his pride and joy roster of luxury golf resorts, are only staying afloat because Trump is continually dumping immense sums of money into them.

On the eve of the first presidential debate, former Vice President Joe Biden has opened his lead slightly on the Bonus.com 2020 US Presidential Election Odds tracker, sitting with a roughly 12.5% advantage as of this writing.

Trump’s entire image is inseparably tied up in his perceived business acumen. The picture revealed by the Times’ reporting tells a very different story, one of a man who was flush with cash coming off the success of his hosting turn on “The Apprentice,” but who saw that money start to dry up right around the time he announced his bid for the presidency.

Last week ended with the sad news that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died at the age of 87 after a long battle with pancreatic cancer. Appointed by President Bill Clinton in 1993, Ginsburg was only the second woman to ever serve on the high court. Throughout her career as a jurist, she came to be seen as an icon for justice and equality, particularly by women and the LGBTQ community.

Ginsburg’s passing has changed the trajectory of the 2020 US presidential race, with an impending battle over appointing her replacement sure to be highly contentious. This path was all but guaranteed to be fraught with deep partisan anger when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced on Friday the Senate would quickly move to replace Ginsburg.

Under normal circumstances McConnell’s announcement wouldn’t be anything unusual, but confirming a Supreme Court nominee in an election year would directly violate the so-called McConnell rule. This rule was established in 2016 during the final term of President Barack Obama, when the McConnell-led Senate refused to hold hearings on Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland following the death of conservative justice Antonin Scalia.

McConnell’s justification at the time was that a Supreme Court justice should not be chosen in an election year, even though it was more than 250 days until Election Day. Ginsburg died just 46 days before the 2020 US presidential election, and McConnell announced mere hours after the news that he had no intention to follow his own rule.

The news of the Justice affectionately referred to as RBG passing mobilized the Democratic fundraising machine. Within just 40 hours of the announcement, left-leaning advocacy nonprofit ActBlue raised more than $100 million in new, small-dollar donations. No similar fundraising bump was reported among right-leaning orgs. For contrast, the Trump campaign’s entire August donation haul was just $200 million.

As it stands, former Vice President Joe Biden still has a nearly 10 point lead over Trump on the Bonus.com 2020 US Presidential Election Tracker. As Friday’s news shows however, there seems to be no limits to the twists and turns the year 2020 has in store.

President Trump’s streak of bad news continued this week with revelations from an upcoming book by famed journalist Bob Woodward that showed the president knew the seriousness of the coronavirus threat as early as February, but admitted to deliberately downplaying it to avoid “creat[ing] a panic.”

Trump gave Woodward unprecedented access, the men speaking on at least 18 occasions. The most explosive revelations in the book so far have been Trump’s candor about his early handling of the pandemic, which came out as the U.S. approaches 200,000 total deaths from COVID-19.

The Trump campaign is also finding itself short of cash. According to NBC News, Trump raised $210 million in August. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but a significantly lower take than former Vice President Joe Biden, whose campaign took in $365 million for the same period.

Trump has had three full years to raise donations ahead of the campaign, so being virtually neck-and-neck with Biden at this late stage in the race has raised alarm bells in the Trump camp.

In other campaign money news, billionaire and former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg made headlines this weekend when he committed to spending $100 million in the state of Florida to boost Biden’s chances. Bloomberg himself entered the campaign late in the game but failed to drum up enough support for his bid for the presidency.

In defiance of public health guidance, Trump has pushed ahead with a series of campaign rallies over the last week, with raucous crowds not socially distancing and wearing very few masks. In an apparent about-face to his about-face about the importance of mask wearing, Trump asked a reporter last week to remove his mask during a White House press briefing. The reporter declined.

With less than 8 weeks to go until election day, the race has become a nail-biter. According to the Bonus.com Presidential Election Tracker, Biden is ahead of Trump in the aggregate by just under 8% at the time of this writing.

Returning from Labor Day weekend, the Biden camp is no doubt pleased to see their candidate back in familiar territory: with a strong lead over President Donald Trump to win the 2020 US presidential election.

The first week of September was a nail-biter, with Trump clawing his way back from a nearly 30 point deficit to be within a single percentage point as the favorite to win. Now, with less than 60 days until the election, Biden’s lead has grown to just shy of 10 points.

It’s still anybody’s race, of course, so the candidates will no doubt be working almost around the clock over the next two months to make their cases with the American voters.

President Trump weathered a scandal involving remarks he allegedly made about US servicemembers killed in action. An article in The Atlantic cited several unnamed senior administration officials who allegedly claimed Trump called them names like “losers” and “suckers.”

Biden, whose own son Beau served in Iraq and later died of brain cancer in 2015, seized on this opportunity to hit the president on his patriotism, calling Trump’s purported words “downright un-American.

“Beau wasn’t a loser or a sucker,” Biden said. “He served with heroes.”

August saw a major trend reversal in the odds to win the 2020 US presidential election, and although summer is winding down, Democrats should be sweating right about now. As the election grows closer, Biden’s lead has dropped to low single-digits.

All summer long former Vice President Joe Biden widened his lead over President Donald Trump, on the Bonus.com Election Odds Tracker, starting at the very beginning of June. At times Biden led in the odds by as much as 28%, as of this writing, his lead sits at just under 5% as the favorite to win the presidency.

September is shaping up to be a major month for the campaigns, with the first of three planned debates set for Sept. 29 from Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland.

2020 US presidential election odds coverage archive:

August 2020

July 2020

June 2020

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

The 2020 US Presidential election is considered to be the most important election of modern times. A new normal to everyday life means a lot is at stake. Polling numbers are one way to predict just what will happen in November. The 2020 presidential election odds tells a different story.

When it comes to the odds to win the presidency, track the odds here. With up to the minute presidential bet odds bookmark this page and check back often.

How Odds On Elections Are Calculated

Presidential betting odds are calculated using an aggregated weighted index including numbers from:

  • Betfair Exchange
  • Betway
  • PredictIt

Using the chart above you can view odds from all of them at once, weighted, or check an individual market. A betting exchange (Betfair Exchange, PredicIt) lets people bet against each other. The bookmaker (Betway) takes less risk but will take a small percentage of winnings.

Election betting is often referred to as “futures” because it is a wager on a specific, future event. Most election wagers are moneyline bets or straight bets. It’s a straight forward wager normally with no spread involved.

For a sporting event, you are bidding on which team will win. For betting on the presidential election, you are bidding on which candidate will win.

How Are The Presidential Election Betting Percentages Calculated

When comparing the presidential odds, a plus symbol means that the option is an underdog. The minus symbol means the option is a favorite to win.

For example, let’s say Trump’s election odds are -125. If you bet $125, you would win $100 and get back the $125 bet if he wins. On the other hand, what if the odds that Joe Biden will win the election are +135. If you bet $100 on Biden to win, you win $135 and get back the original $100 bet.

When the 2020 election odds are +135 that means oddsmakers give the Democrats a 42.55% chance of winning the election. The return on the wager is higher. This is because betting on the US presidential election underdog is seen as a more risky bet.

When Trump’s election odds are set at -125, presidential bet odds give Republicans a 55.56% chance of winning.

How Accurate Are The Betting Odds For The Election

As with any wager, it’s important to look at the sources of information that lead people to choose one bet or another. In this case, news coverage and election polling are common sources of information.

Prior to the 2016 election, people commonly trusted reliable polling numbers. That’s changed in the 2018 and 2020 elections.

So, how accurate are the betting odds?  They change daily (and even hourly) based on peoples’ perceptions of who will win the election. The odds are volatile right now as each national and international event, and most importantly the government’s response to Coronavirus, affect the public’s perceptions of each candidate.

2020 Election Key Dates

Many of the key election dates are set months or years in advance. The calendar is in flux due to the effect of COVID-19 on large gatherings or in-person voting.

Several states postponed their Democratic primaries due to stay-at-home restrictions. Also, the primaries are now less influential because Vice President Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party.

Here are some of the key dates that could affect polling numbers for the 2020 US Presidential election:

  • June 2 The last major multi-state primary day (Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Washington, D.C.)
  • August 17-20: Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (Delayed from the original dates of July 13-16)
  • August 24-27: Republican National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina
  • September 29: Presidential debate in South Bend, Indiana (The nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates sponsors all presidential and vice-presidential debates.)
  • October 7: The vice presidential debate in Salt Lake City, Utah
  • October 15: Second presidential debate in Ann Arbor, Michigan
  • October 22: Third and final presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee
  • November 3: U.S. Presidential Election

Can You Bet On The 2020 Election In The US?

Legal US online sports betting websites do not accept betting on presidential elections or any other political betting. We don’t see this situation changing before the 2020 election.

Although some events during April 2020 led election betters to believe this could be changing.

West Virginia Election Betting

The West Virginia Lottery briefly approved three sports betting companies to open election betting. With sports betting down and casinos closed due to the Coronavirus, the sports betting companies sought different avenues for revenue.

Governor Jim Justice quickly rescinded this approval. Election betting is illegal in West Virginia.

Looking for more sports betting odds? Check out our Super Bowl Odds, World Series, Stanley Cup, and NBA Finals.

FAQs – U.S. Presidential Election Betting And Odds

Are there election prop bets?

The most common prop bet is simply who will win the election. It is also possible to wager on other results of the 2020 election. The political betting market includes who will win the popular vote, who will win the Electoral college, or who will control the U.S. House of Representatives.

Do Las Vegas sportsbooks offer election betting?

No, due to restrictive regulations against political and election betting, sportsbooks won’t take an election bet. When Nevada state set the regulations for sports betting in 1985, they restricted betting to professional sports. Over the years, Nevada loosened the rules to include college sports and the Olympics. Despite that, the state still does not allow for election betting. There is still talk of Vegas presidential odds, though. Some of the top oddsmakers in Vegas are offering their predictions. They are posting lines, just like they would for other non-sports events, like the Oscars. Although they are prohibited from taking bets, it’s more of a marketing gimmick, for entertainment purposes only.

What causes the political betting market percentages to change?

Peoples’ perceptions of the likelihood of an outcome affect the percentages daily, and even hourly. News and current events affect peoples’ perceptions, particularly in a volatile and ever-changing news cycle.

How important are endorsements?

In the past, endorsements were a key indicator of the eventual nominee and election winner. The 2016 election, though, ended that trend. That said, endorsements can indicate how an elected official will turn out the vote in their jurisdiction. (FiveThirtyEight?)

Where can I find reliable polling data?

Polling data can provide a good indicator of the likely outcome of an election. These are, of course, polls and not results and should be taken with a grain of salt. The 2016 election resulted in some of the most traditionally reliable polls being totally off base. Some of the most well-respected polls for US election monitoring are RealClear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.

Why don’t the US presidential odds percentages add up to 100%?

The odds markets continue to take into consideration unlikely candidates. For now, this still includes Senator Bernie Sanders but also includes the odds of candidates like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vice President Mike Pence, or Governor Andrew Cuomo becoming president – all long-shot candidates.