Implied probabilities are calculated using odds offered by Betfair.
Last Updated: 2021-11-28 13:00:29 PDT.
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
The 2020 US Presidential election was considered to be the most important election of modern times. Even before the close of calendar year 2020, there is already talk of the 2024 Presidential election. Trump is already fundraising and declaring his intention to run, which sets up a potentially wild ride for the next 4 years.
When it comes to the odds to win the presidency, track the odds here. With up to the minute presidential bet odds bookmark this page and check back often.
How Odds On Elections Are Calculated
Presidential betting odds are calculated using an aggregated weighted index including numbers from:
- Betfair Exchange
As of early 2021, only Betfair is offering odds because they are the only bookmaker taking bets on the next election. We assume Betway and PredictIt will be taking bets at some point and those odds will be added in.
Once all three bookmakers publish odds, you can use the chart above to view odds from all of them at once, weighted, or check an individual market. A betting exchange (Betfair Exchange, PredicIt) lets people bet against each other. The bookmaker (Betway) takes less risk but will take a small percentage of winnings.
Election betting is often referred to as “futures” because it is a wager on a specific, future event. Most election wagers are moneyline bets or straight bets. It’s a straight forward wager normally with no spread involved.
For a sporting event, you are bidding on which team will win. For betting on the presidential election, you are bidding on which candidate will win.
How Are The Presidential Election Betting Percentages Calculated
When comparing the presidential odds, a plus symbol means that the option is an underdog. The minus symbol means the option is a favorite to win.
For example, let’s say Trump’s election odds are -125. If you bet $125, you would win $100 and get back the $125 bet if he wins. On the other hand, what if the odds that Kamala Harris will win the election are +135. If you bet $100 on Harris to win, you win $135 and get back the original $100 bet.
When the 2020 election odds are +135 that means oddsmakers give the Democrats a 42.55% chance of winning the election. The return on the wager is higher. This is because betting on the US presidential election underdog is seen as a more risky bet.
When Trump’s election odds are set at -125, presidential bet odds give Republicans a 55.56% chance of winning.
How Accurate Are The Betting Odds For The Election
As with any wager, it’s important to look at the sources of information that lead people to choose one bet or another. In this case, news coverage and election polling are common sources of information.
Prior to the 2016 election, people commonly trusted reliable polling numbers. That’s changed in the 2018 and 2020 elections. In particular, polls leading up to the 2020 elections predicted the Democrats would gain in the US House of Representatives and would take bake the US Senate. Neither of these occurred.
So, how accurate are the betting odds? They change daily (and even hourly) based on peoples’ perceptions of who will win the election. If Trump continues to campaign for the 2024 election, the odds could continue to be as volatile as they were in 2020 because of his unpredictability.
2024 Election Key Dates
Many of the key election dates are set months or years in advance. As of early 2021, only two dates have been set for the 2024 election cycle. Primary dates and convention dates have yet to be set.
Here are some of the key dates that could affect polling numbers for the 2020 US Presidential election:
- November 5, 2024: US Presidential Election
- January 20, 2025: Swearing-in of the next President
Can You Bet On The 2024 Election In The US?
Legal US online sports betting websites do not accept betting on presidential elections or any other political betting. We don’t see this situation changing before the 2024 election.
Although some events during 2020 led election betters to believe this could be changing.
West Virginia Election Betting
The West Virginia Lottery briefly approved three sports betting companies to open election betting. With sports betting down and casinos closed due to the Coronavirus, the sports betting companies sought different avenues for revenue. Governor Jim Justice quickly rescinded this approval. Election betting is illegal in West Virginia.
FAQs – U.S. Presidential Election Betting And Odds
The most common prop bet is simply who will win the election. It is also possible to wager on other results of the 2024 election. The political betting market includes who will win the popular vote, who will win the Electoral College, or who will control the US House of Representatives.
No, due to restrictive regulations against political and election betting, sportsbooks won’t take an election bet. When Nevada state set the regulations for sports betting in 1985, they restricted betting to professional sports. Over the years, Nevada loosened the rules to include college sports and the Olympics. Despite that, the state still does not allow for election betting. There is still talk of Vegas presidential odds, though. Some of the top oddsmakers in Vegas are offering their predictions. They are posting lines, just like they would for other non-sports events, like the Oscars. Although they are prohibited from taking bets, it’s more of a marketing gimmick, for entertainment purposes only.
Peoples’ perceptions of the likelihood of an outcome affect the percentages daily, and even hourly. News and current events affect peoples’ perceptions, particularly in a volatile and ever-changing news cycle.
In the past, endorsements were a key indicator of the eventual nominee and election winner. The 2016 election, though, ended that trend. That said, endorsements can indicate how an elected official will turn out the vote in their jurisdiction.
Polling data can provide a good indicator of the likely outcome of an election. These are, of course, polls and not results and should be taken with a grain of salt. The 2016 election resulted in some of the most traditionally reliable polls being totally off base. The same occurred during the 2020 election, particularly in the US Senate. Some of the most well-respected polls for US election monitoring are RealClear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.
The odds markets continue to take into consideration unlikely candidates. In the months leading up to the 2020 election, the odds focused only on Trump and Biden but earlier odds included Senator Bernie Sanders, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and even Vice President Mike Pence – all long-shot candidates. For the 2024 election, because it is still early, there are multiple potential candidates and nominees, including four with the last name Trump.