2020 US Presidential Election Odds

ZOOM: MARKET:

Donald Trump38.27%0.10%
TIMEODDSCHANGE
Last Hour38.200.03
Last 4 Hours38.190.45
Yesterday37.690.59
Last 7 Day36.800.46
Joe Biden59.48%-0.10%
TIMEODDSCHANGE
Last Hour59.56
Last 4 Hours59.56-0.27
Yesterday60.00-0.84
Last 7 Day61.20-0.57
Live Betting Odds Data - 2020 US President

MARKETDATETRUMPBIDEN
All2020-08-0738.2759.48
Betfair2020-08-0737.259.3
Betway2020-08-0740.863.7
PredictIt2020-08-0744.057.0
Smarkets2020-08-0737.559.0
Total Bet over $ 75,426,482

Odds and amount wagered are calculated using our aggregated weighted index of odds offered by Betfair, Betway, Smarkets and Predict It.
Last Updated: 2020-08-07 19:10:30 PDT

Odds are updated every 15 minutes.

Latest US Election Odds News for August 2020:

With three months to go until Election Day, President Donald Trump has some serious work to do if he’s going to turn his floundering campaign around. Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden nationally, including in key battleground states Trump carried in 2016 like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

As they say, the only poll that matters is Election Day, but the strategy that seems to be taking shape in the president’s re-election is to attack Biden’s health, repeatedly calling into question his mental fitness to serve.

In an attempt at a power move, the Trump campaign is now pushing to hold more than the traditional three presidential debates. They also want to move the the first debate up from its current Sept. 29 date. Instead of attacking Biden’s positions on the issues, Trump’s campaign has resorted to the ugliest form of political tactics, both in personally attacking his rival and stoking fear among the electorate. It’s a divisive and risky strategy that is not in any way guaranteed to pay off.

The president and his supporters in recent weeks have also attempted to undermine the nation’s confidence in mail-in voting, despite the fact that the president himself said he plans to vote by mail in 2020.


US presidential election odds coverage archive:

July 2020

June 2020

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

The 2020 US Presidential election is considered to be the most important election of modern times. A new normal to everyday life means a lot is at stake. Polling numbers are one way to predict just what will happen in November. The 2020 presidential election odds tells a different story.

When it comes to the odds to win the presidency, track the odds here. With up to the minute presidential bet odds bookmark this page and check back often.

How Odds On Elections Are Calculated

Presidential betting odds are calculated using an aggregated weighted index including numbers from:

  • Betfair Exchange
  • Betway
  • PredictIt
  • Smarkets

Using the chart above you can view odds from all of them at once, weighted, or check an individual market. A betting exchange (Betfair Exchange, PredicIt, Smarkets) lets people bet against each other. The bookmaker (Betway) takes less risk but will take a small percentage of winnings.

Election betting is often referred to as “futures” because it is a wager on a specific, future event. Most election wagers are moneyline bets or straight bets. It’s a straight forward wager normally with no spread involved.

For a sporting event, you are bidding on which team will win. For betting on the presidential election, you are bidding on which candidate will win.

How Are The Presidential Election Betting Percentages Calculated

When comparing the presidential odds, a plus symbol means that the option is an underdog. The minus symbol means the option is a favorite to win.

For example, let’s say Trump’s election odds are -125. If you bet $125, you would win $100 and get back the $125 bet if he wins. On the other hand, what if the odds that Joe Biden will win the election are +135. If you bet $100 on Biden to win, you win $135 and get back the original $100 bet.

When the 2020 election odds are +135 that means oddsmakers give the Democrats a 42.55% chance of winning the election. The return on the wager is higher. This is because betting on the US presidential election underdog is seen as a more risky bet.

When Trump’s election odds are set at -125, presidential bet odds give Republicans a 55.56% chance of winning.

How Accurate Are The Betting Odds For The Election

As with any wager, it’s important to look at the sources of information that lead people to choose one bet or another. In this case, news coverage and election polling are common sources of information.

Prior to the 2016 election, people commonly trusted reliable polling numbers. That’s changed in the 2018 and 2020 elections.

So, how accurate are the betting odds?  They change daily (and even hourly) based on peoples’ perceptions of who will win the election. The odds are volatile right now as each national and international event, and most importantly the government’s response to Coronavirus, affect the public’s perceptions of each candidate.

2020 Election Key Dates

Many of the key election dates are set months or years in advance. The calendar is in flux due to the effect of COVID-19 on large gatherings or in-person voting.

Several states postponed their Democratic primaries due to stay-at-home restrictions. Also, the primaries are now less influential because Vice President Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party.

Here are some of the key dates that could affect polling numbers for the 2020 US Presidential election:

  • June 2 The last major multi-state primary day (Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Washington, D.C.)
  • August 17-20: Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (Delayed from the original dates of July 13-16)
  • August 24-27: Republican National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina
  • September 29: Presidential debate in South Bend, Indiana (The nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates sponsors all presidential and vice-presidential debates.)
  • October 7: The vice presidential debate in Salt Lake City, Utah
  • October 15: Second presidential debate in Ann Arbor, Michigan
  • October 22: Third and final presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee
  • November 3: U.S. Presidential Election

Can You Bet On The 2020 Election In The US?

Legal US online sports betting websites do not accept betting on presidential elections or any other political betting. We don’t see this situation changing before the 2020 election.

Although some events during April 2020 led election betters to believe this could be changing.

West Virginia Election Betting

The West Virginia Lottery briefly approved three sports betting companies to open election betting. With sports betting down and casinos closed due to the Coronavirus, the sports betting companies sought different avenues for revenue.

Governor Jim Justice quickly rescinded this approval. Election betting is illegal in West Virginia.

FAQs – U.S. Presidential Election Betting And Odds

Are there election prop bets?

The most common prop bet is simply who will win the election. It is also possible to wager on other results of the 2020 election. The political betting market includes who will win the popular vote, who will win the Electoral college, or who will control the U.S. House of Representatives.

Do Las Vegas sportsbooks offer election betting?

No, due to restrictive regulations against political and election betting, sportsbooks won’t take an election bet. When Nevada state set the regulations for sports betting in 1985, they restricted betting to professional sports. Over the years, Nevada loosened the rules to include college sports and the Olympics. Despite that, the state still does not allow for election betting. There is still talk of Vegas presidential odds, though. Some of the top oddsmakers in Vegas are offering their predictions. They are posting lines, just like they would for other non-sports events, like the Oscars. Although they are prohibited from taking bets, it’s more of a marketing gimmick, for entertainment purposes only.

What causes the political betting market percentages to change?

Peoples’ perceptions of the likelihood of an outcome affect the percentages daily, and even hourly. News and current events affect peoples’ perceptions, particularly in a volatile and ever-changing news cycle.

How important are endorsements?

In the past, endorsements were a key indicator of the eventual nominee and election winner. The 2016 election, though, ended that trend. That said, endorsements can indicate how an elected official will turn out the vote in their jurisdiction. (FiveThirtyEight?)

Where can I find reliable polling data?

Polling data can provide a good indicator of the likely outcome of an election. These are, of course, polls and not results and should be taken with a grain of salt. The 2016 election resulted in some of the most traditionally reliable polls being totally off base. Some of the most well-respected polls for US election monitoring are RealClear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.

Why don’t the US presidential odds percentages add up to 100%?

The odds markets continue to take into consideration unlikely candidates. For now, this still includes Senator Bernie Sanders but also includes the odds of candidates like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vice President Mike Pence, or Governor Andrew Cuomo becoming president – all long-shot candidates.