After his tumultuous presidency, Donald Trump is gearing up for another presidential election. The Trump 2024 odds are competitive, and he faces a strong primary challenge from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. See the current presidential odds trends on the top candidates below:
Implied probabilities are calculated using data offered by PredictIt.
Last Updated: 2023-02-05 09:00:02 PDT.
Odds of Trump Winning in 2024
Donald Trump took control of the Republican Party during his term, and that control remains in place. Several polls have found that the majority of Republican voters don’t believe that Joe Biden was legitimately elected in 2020. That is a uniquely Trumpist position that has made its way into mainstream Republican thought. Similar Trumpist positions on the January 6 hearings have continued to influence Republican opinion.
With such a powerful hold on the party’s voters, it’s no wonder that Donald Trump remains a GOP frontrunner for the 2024 presidential race.
Will Trump Run in 2024 Odds
The exact odds on whether or not Trump will run in 2024 are hard to come by, but it’s a near certainty at this point. It’s likely that no online sportsbook would take the bet, or would give large plus-money odds on him not running. Right now, Trump is the most likely candidate to win the Republican primary, followed closely by Ron DeSantis. Everyone else is +1400 or longer, and potential candidates like Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo have odds +2000 or longer (20 to 1 odds).
Basically, if a betting website gave you anything less than +1000 on Trump not running in 2024, don’t take the bet. The odds on Trump running in 2024 is close to a 100% likelihood.
Will Trump Win in 2024? Here’s His Political History
Donald Trump may have been a political newcomer in 2016. However, that’s not his first attempted entrance into politics. Plus, the Trump odds to become president in 2016 were handily overcome when he beat out the expected victor, Hillary Clinton. So, how did we get here?
In 2000, Trump was a Reform Party candidate, and he considered entering the 2012 presidential race as a Republican candidate. Both runs raised questions about whether Trump had marketing motives rather than political motives. He also switched from donating to Democratic Party campaigns as late as 2008 to espousing the conservative positions he embraced during his presidency.
Trump’s political transformation was complete when he became a serious presidential candidate in the 2016 race and went on to win the GOP primary and the 2016 election. He shattered presidential norms in office, including embracing the peaceful transfer of power. His lies about the 2020 election led to the January 6 attack on the Capitol, where Trump supporters and far-right militia members stormed the Capitol building in an attempt to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump’s next presidential bid is rumored but remains unconfirmed. Based on Justice Department policies going back to the Nixon administration, Trump wouldn’t be able to be indicted or criminally prosecuted while he sat in office. With so many federal investigations underway, it’s a powerful incentive for Trump to run and win in 2024.
Trump vs. Biden Presidential Odds for 2024
Trump polls favorably against Joe Biden in a 2024 matchup. Part of that polling comes from the economic challenges of a post-pandemic economy paired with gas shortages caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Biden rallied as inflation slowed, gas prices fell, and he secured major policy victories.
However, Trump news-jacks better than perhaps anyone else, and certainly better than any other candidate with odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election. Shocking tweets and statements created media firestorms where reporters would chase his controversy. That took time away from grilling congressional Republicans about bills they were moving through Congress. While Trump’s outbursts could be embarrassing for Republicans, they weren’t without strategic advantages.
In another presidential campaign, Trump will refocus the news back onto him. Another campaign of shameless lies will generate media coverage that his base eats up, and undecided voters misinterpret as strength.
What Can Hurt Trump 2024 Odds?
Trump may be the Republican frontrunner in many minds. However, he comes with a lot of baggage. The January 6 hearings have uncovered horrific details about his reaction to the attack on the Capitol. They included Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony that Trump:
- Thought Mike Pence deserved to be hung by the mob
- Wanted to allow armed supporters into his rally and march to the Capitol with him
- Tried to wrest his limo’s steering wheel from his Secret Service agents to join the mob at the Capitol
That’s without considering Trump’s lying, unpredictable outbursts, and other embarrassments to ranking Republicans. Establishment Republicans would likely prefer a DeSantis presidency to a second Trump presidency.
Even though DeSantis polls well against Trump in a general election poll, Trump continues to dominate GOP primary polls. Bloomberg reports a New York Times/Siena College poll that shows 49% of GOP voters would vote for Trump in a hypothetical Republican primary. Only 25% would vote for DeSantis.
While many Republican voters want an alternative to Trump, Trump’s hold over GOP voters remains decisive.
Where Does Trump Fit in the Republican Party?
Trump is a populist who will adopt part of the public’s opinion to get into office. His appeals to “the people” make voters who are outside of the elite class feel like they’re being fought for in Washington. It makes no difference to those voters that Trump is part of the “elite” they resent. It makes no difference to Trump and other populists, either.
Although Trump has served a term as president, he still positions himself as a political outsider. In his 2020 campaign, he continued running as an “outsider” despite his term as president. So even though he could join the Republican establishment, he behaves like a conservative outsider.
In that way, he’s the evolution of the Reagan conservatives who gained a foothold in the Republican Party in the late 1970s and early 1980s. They were the first generation of mainstream Republicans who exaggerated moral issues to scare voters into voting for them. Proposing over-the-top obscenity laws and claiming America was falling apart was part of the new wave of rhetoric voters recognize as normal today.
Trump has pushed past exaggeration into creating his own reality. He’s the next step of a brach of conservatism concerned with securing power at any cost.
Donald Trump 2024 Odds FAQs
The 2024 Presidential Election is on November 5, 2024. Although early voting will begin in many states across the US weeks beforehand, none will be counted until November 5.
No. However, his presidential campaign announcement is expected. Federal investigations may incentivise him to run for president to avoid prosecution resulting from those investigations. After a presidential term, it also seems hard to believe that Trump would pass at the chance to become president again. As the January 6 hearings have demonstrated, Trump does not react well to coming in second place.
Yes. Trump ran as a Republican in 2016 and 2020. Since that’s where his voter base is, that’s how he’ll run if he wins the Republican primary. If he loses the primary, he could run as an Independent, but he’s currently a Republican.
The Trump Presidential odds for 2024 come from sportsbooks and prediction markets. As bettors make wagers and sportsbooks adjust odds, the odds change and paint a picture of what bettors think will happen. However, sportsbook odds are skewed by bettor choices and sportsbook hedges. Prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbook odds, but nothing beats exit polls.
Aside from a few speeches and rallies, Trump has stayed at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. He has also been investigated for his role in inciting the Capitol Riot, tax fraud in his businesses before running for president, and for taking classified documents home to Mar-a-Lago.
Trump has not announced a presidential run and has not picked a Vice President. The only certainty is that Trump’s Vice President won’t be Mike Pence. Pence has already given speeches denouncing Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election. In what could be his own bid for the White House, Pence could cast himself as the top anti-Trump Republican and use his role in preserving Democracy to reach out to voters who wouldn’t normally be open to his presidency. He can’t do any of that as Trump’s next Vice President.