US Presidential Election Odds News Monthly Recap: October 2020

The final month before election day began with the revelation that President Donald Trump himself, his wife Melania Trump, and their teenage son Barron had contracted coronavirus. The Bonus.com 2020 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker showed a sudden, steep decline in Trump’s odds to win re-election timed with the news of his diagnosis. Trump’s odds recovered somewhat mid-month, but he was never within 20% of former Vice President Joe Biden all October long.

As of this writing, the day before Election Day, Biden’s odds lead sits at just shy of 31%, with more than $360 million coming in from overseas betting markets. Below is a week-by-week look at the final wild month of this unusual campaign.

Oct. 21-31

In the final full week before Election Day, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows made a stark announcement on CNN on Sunday: the U.S. cannot control the coronavirus pandemic. This admission the campaign had all but given up on attempting to mitigate the number of infections is stunning, particularly with the U.S. setting daily records for new infections and still losing over 1,000 people a day to the virus. It’s a puzzling admission of essentially abdication of duty with eight days until Election Day.

Overseas wagers on the 2020 US Presidential Election have surged in recent days on the Bonus.com Election Odds Tracker, set to eclipse $250 million in bets by Election Day. As of this writing, former Vice President Joe Biden is sitting with a comfortable 33 point advantage over Trump as the favorite to win. With the campaigns effectively over, and no big needle-moving events left on the calendar, the odds probably won’t change significantly between now and the big day.

Despite renewed fears of coronavirus, 60 million Americans have taken advantage of early voting, already surpassing 2016’s total of early votes with just eight days to go. Nationally, Biden holds a lead in all of the key 2020 states, even those won by Trump in 2016 like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. He remains competitive even in traditional Republican stronghold states like Texas and Georgia. Despite favorable polling, the Biden camp has repeatedly urged supporters not to get overconfident and to remember 2016.

Oct. 14-18

It may sound hard to believe, but we’re just two weeks away from wrapping up what feels like the longest presidential election campaign in history. Nearly 30 million Americans have already cast their ballots, and more than $186 million has been wagered from overseas in the 2020 US Presidential Election. According to the Bonus.com election tracker, former Vice President Joe Biden still holds a decisive lead over President Donald Trump, with a just under 25% odds advantage to make Trump the first one-term president in nearly 30 years.

At this point there really isn’t much left to say. The “undecided voters” are becoming fewer by the way, with the vast majority of voters dug in with their minds made up. Not even the much-ballyhooed final presidential debate on Thursday, Oct. 22 is expected to move the needle much, if at all. Get out there and vote. Check back for more updates as they happen.

Oct. 7-11

With just three weeks to go until the 2020 US presidential election, the tension in American politics is so thick you can cut it with a knife. The U.S. Senate is pushing ahead with confirmation hearings for U.S. Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, and President Trump has announced intentions to campaign every day between now and the election. Trump’s physician, Sean Conley, claimed on Monday that the President no longer posed a risk for transmitting COVID-19. He said Trump has tested negative on two rapid tests given on two days, but declined to say what days, or whether they were consecutive.

Despite the continued murkiness of Trump’s condition, he’s pressing ahead with crowded campaign events, including one in Florida last night. The president and most attendees seen were not wearing masks. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was even seen high-fiving crowd participants. Trump continued to refer to himself as “cured” of the virus that has so far killed 215,000 Americans, now claiming to be “immune” from the virus, and saying he has a “protective glow.”

After spending most of the last six months discrediting him and disagreeing with him publicly, the Trump campaign has used a clip of the nation’s top infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci in a recent advertisement. Fauci himself says the clip was taken out of context and that he hasn’t endorsed a political candidate in his 50 years of public service. He has said the campaign should take down the ad.

Senate Republicans are sweating out these last few weeks until Election Day, with most national polls indicating an electoral bloodbath may be coming. Incumbent Senate Republicans including Colorado’s Cory Gardner, Arizona’s Martha McSally, and Maine’s Susan Collins are just some of the vulnerable seats that are in play this cycle. With less than a month to go, the candidates are going out of their way to distance themselves from Trump, with Collins declining to say whether she even planned to vote for the president. Longtime South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s opponent Jamie Harrison raised an almost unthinkable $57 million last quarter, the most any U.S. Senate candidate has raised in a single quarter in U.S. history.

Trump’s odds numbers have remained abysmal at this late stage in the campaign, with Biden up over 35% on the Bonus.com Election Odds Tracker. It’s one of his biggest leads of the campaign so far, with more than $162 million in wagers taken already.

Oct. 1-4

The 2020 US presidential election odds were thrown into chaos yet again as October began, with President Donald Trump tweeting late on Friday, Oct. 2 that he and his wife Melania had tested positive for Covid-19. The odds reaction to the news has been swift and decisive, with former Vice President Joe Biden now sitting as the favorite to win the presidency by nearly 40% at the time of this writing.

Shortly after the announcement, Trump was taken to Walter Reed Medical Center as a precautionary measure. Since then, the information flow out of the White House has left much to be desired, according to medical professionals. Mixed messaging about the president’s health, which has been a hallmark of this administration, has often left the media with more questions than answers. Trump’s doctor said the president received “supplemental oxygen” when his blood oxygen levels dipped, and Trump has received a chest x-ray as well as an ultrasound or CT scan. However, the medical team would not divulge what if anything was found following these examinations.

Trump has made several appearances from isolation, including a baffling photo opp where the president appeared to be signing a blank sheet of paper. He also made a highly publicized appearance in an ad hoc parade on Sunday outside of the hospital, where he appeared in a limousine flanked by Secret Service agents and waved to the assembled crowd. For what it’s worth, the Secret Service itself has since denounced the parade.

The Biden campaign has reacted to the news with compassion, even going so far as to suspend all attack ads, a courtesy the Trump campaign did not reciprocate. Biden and running mate Kamala Harris have both repeatedly tested negative for coronavirus following Trump’s diagnosis, but Republicans in his orbit continue to come forward with their diagnoses or have opted to self-quarantine. Three Republican senators, former advisor Kellyanne Conway, presidential aide Hope Hicks, former NJ Gov. Chris Christie, RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, and the very latest, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany are among those confirmed positive for Covid-19 in recent days.

As for how all of these high-ranking GOP luminaries caught the virus, a White House rose garden ceremony last week where Trump introduced his pick for the former Supreme Court seat of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Amy Coney Barrett, is being eyed as a potential super spreader event. The event was attended by most of the people in Trump’s circle who have since contracted Covid-19, who were all sitting in close proximity during the event, and not wearing masks.