After watching his lead disappear at the beginning of September, former Vice President Joe Biden has stretched back out to an 8-point advantage in the latest Bonus.com 2020 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker over Pres. Donald Trump.
Although the betting market Betway lists both candidates at -118 to win with 54.1% win probability, other markets favor Biden.
Popular betting site PredictIt gives Biden the implied odds of -144 to win, while Pres. Trump checks in at +127. The PredictIt market seems to reflect national polls that have Mr. Biden leading by roughly 7 points over President.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll found that nine out of 10 likely Biden voters were locked in on their decision. Among likely Trump voters, eight out of 10 shared a similar feeling. Pres. Trump’s opportunity to overturn Biden’s polling advantage is dwindling as voters appear to be more entrenched than ever before.
Biden Enjoys Steady Polling Numbers
The Democratic-nominee enjoyed a steady week of encouraging polls at the state level, boasting leads across the important Midwest states.
The latest results of FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model gives Biden a 75% chance of taking the presidency. Pres. Trump’s probability for re-election stands at just 24% in the model. The website also gives Biden an 86% chance of winning the popular vote.
Biden enjoys high probabilities of winning states like Minnesota and Michigan (86% probability), Arizona (67%), and Pennsylvania (75%). Those swing states alone give Biden a commanding electoral college advantage over Mr. Trump.
Although there have been murmurs of a possible upset, red-leaning states like Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia appear to be firmly for Pres. Trump in the prediction model.
FiveThirtyEight’s model relies heavily on state polls, shying away from the more attention-getting national surveys.
Return To Normal In Late-2021?
Wednesday morning, CDC Director Robert Redfield admitted to a Senate panel that widespread availability of a COVID vaccine would not be ready before the summer of 2021. Redfield added that a mask might provide more protection even when a vaccine arrives.
“I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine,” Redfield said.
Redford’s comments contrast with recent declarations by President Trump. Mr. Trump continues to suggest a vaccine will be ready by the end of 2020. “We’re going to have a vaccine in a matter of weeks, it could be four weeks it could be eight weeks,” Trump said on Fox News.
Later on Wednesday, Trump disputed Redford’s Senate testimony, by saying the CDC leader “made a mistake.” Trump also told the assembled media that Redfield’s delivery timeline lacked the information he had as President.
With coronavirus continuing to dominate voters’ minds, Redfield’s warning could continue to influence the low polling we see for Trump.
Trump’s Town Hall In Philadelphia
In Tuesday’s televised town hall with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, Trump deflected criticism of his COVID-19 response. Fueled by his recorded quotes for Bob Woodward’s latest book, “Rage,” the audience of uncommitted voters asked the President to further explain his decision to “down play” his administration’s reaction to a pandemic that has taken almost 200,000 lives.
“I feel that we’ve done a tremendous job, actually,” Pres. Trump told the audience. “It’s something that I don’t think has been recognized like it should.”
In what became Twitter fodder for snarky politicos, Trump’s biggest blunder of the night was remarking that “herd mentality” would take care of the virus. “It is going to disappear, it’s going to disappear, I still say it,” Mr. Trump said. “You’ll develop herd, like a herd mentality. It’s going to be, it’s going to be herd-developed, and that’s going to happen. That will all happen.”
Health experts have suggested that trying to bring herd immunity to the United States would cost millions of lives. Over 200 million people would need to contract the virus to obtain the threshold for herd immunity, and even then, there’s no guarantee that it would provide widespread protection.
The Biden camp responded after Trump’s appearance on the broadcast with a stinging rebuke of the President’s outlook. “We need a president who live not just in our country, but on our planet,” wrote Biden spokesman Andrew Bates.
Trump Failing To Land Law And Order Message?
President Trump is desperately trying to hold onto voters in the suburbs of America’s largest cities. Mostly white and college-educated, Mr. Trump has sent a clear message to those voters that their neighborhoods could be in danger without him in the White House.
Recent polling shows that Trump’s message is falling on deaf ears. Only 11% of suburban respondents in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll said that crime is the most critical voting factor. A candidate’s coronavirus response plan ranked highest in the survey, with 27% of suburban white voters.
Trump’s defiance to change his central message down the stretch will likely cost him a large portion of this demographic.
With Michigan and Minnesota beginning early voting this week, the first debate, in less than two weeks, may not provide the tectonic shift that Trump is hoping to save his re-election campaign.