Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump climbed to 26 points in the latest tabulation of the Bonus.com 2020 US Presidential Odds Tracker. The former Vice President continues to dominate state and national polls, signaling a potential Electoral College landslide if results hold through the Nov. 3 election day.
In response to his sagging poll numbers, President Trump attempted to show a solemn, empathic face on the coronavirus’ devastating death totals. After months of deflecting criticism and scientific data, the President restarted his daily press conference on Monday to provide the nation with the latest updates with COVID-19.
Trump’s previous attempts at improving his popularity with the daily press conferences ended after the President made numerous gaffes, including suggesting that people inject disinfectants to kill the coronavirus.
Biden’s Lead Grows in Recent National Polls
On Wednesday, the latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll showed Biden leading Trump by eight percentage points. The poll of registered voters also found that 16 percent plan to support either a third-party candidate or not vote.
Perhaps the brightest spot in the poll for Biden came from undecided and independent voters. That group preferred Biden by a 61 to 39 margin over the president. Seventy percent of the same poll participants said they disapproved of Trump’s performance, and 62% felt the economy was failing Americans.
As with other polls, Biden continues to dominate on the question of who between the two candidates would better handle the coronavirus. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, just 38% of respondents said that Trump is doing a good job handling the crisis.
Does President Trump’s Support Have a Ceiling?
With Trump’s stagnant approval rating, some are wondering if his support has a low ceiling. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s aggregate approval rating spiked on March 29 at 45.8 percent. But since that high tide, the President has fallen into a groove resting around 40 percent.
Trump’s disapproval at the site had steadied at just under 56%, the highest average mark for the incumbent since December of 2017.
Throwing out a few Republican-heavy polls such as Rasmussen, the President’s approval seems stuck in the neighborhood of 40%. With no true third-party candidate looking to siphon votes, Joe Biden’s vote-total threshold for winning swing states may be much lower than they were for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Can President Trump Win 270 Electoral Votes?
With his flagging support, the Trump campaign must decide their plan to win 270 electoral votes. The Economist’s Electoral College tracker shows that Trump’s range of electoral votes rests between 123 and 285. The low ceiling indicates that Trump will have to summon the magic of 2016 when he won three swing states by just over 79,000 votes.
The Economist puts Biden’s odds at winning the 2020 Electoral College at 92% and taking the popular vote at 99%. Biden’s Electoral College vote range according to the publication is anywhere from 253 to 415. This stat means that Biden’s floor could almost put him in the White House.
Could Trump Actually Stage A Comeback?
The PTSD from the 2016 election certainly lives with Democrats who continue to tell constituents to ignore the polls. Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin told Politico Magazine that the favorable polls in her state mean nothing.
“I don’t believe it,” Slotkin said. “Listen, if anyone tells me they can accurately predict what major events are coming in the remainder of 2020, I’ll give them a thousand dollars.”
Although Slotkin is trying to win re-election in a district that went heavy for Trump in 2016, Democrats want their supporters not to trust polls heading into November.
Kathleen Parker’s op-ed in the Washington Post on Wednesday urged Democrats to remember where Clinton was in 2016 and how it all fell apart. With debates and the potential news of a completed COVID-19 vaccine for 2021, Trump still has areas to re-gain voters.
But as the sun sets on July, bookmakers continue to signal that the President’s chances of a rebound are growing slimmer by the week.
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