US Presidential Election Odds News Monthly Recap: June 2020

With four months to go until election day, the stakes are getting higher, both literally and figuratively, with more than $56 million wagered on the 2020 US presidential election so far.

There’s no gentle way to put this: June was a calamitous month for the incumbent. The Bonus.com election tracker got a real workout this month, as President Donald Trump went from virtually tied with former Vice President Joe Biden to down by nearly 23%, with Biden now the heavy favorite.

Below is our week-by-week recap of the month of June. Keep checking back for real-time 2020 US presidential election odds, which we compile from a wide range of sources.

June 29-30

The month of June was a rough one for President Donald Trump’s re-election hopes.

As of this writing, former Vice President Joe Biden has grown his lead over the incumbent to a healthy 24% as the favorite to win the 2020 US presidential election. On June 1, the candidates were virtually tied.

As new coronavirus cases surge across much of the southern US, and the death toll topping 125,000, Trump has more or less simply stopped talking about the pandemic, even as nearly 1,000 Americans continue to lose their lives each day. Several states with Republican Trump-supporting governors, including Arizona, Texas and Florida, have pulled back on their states’ reopening plans in light of the resurgence. Trump’s refusal to wear a mask has also drawn an increasing drumbeat of criticism in the last week, including from staunch allies.

Trump faced a new firestorm this past weekend, when the New York Times released a bombshell report that Russian intelligence had a bounty program with Taliban-linked militias targeting US and UK forces in Afghanistan. Trump initially denied being briefed on the matter, but it has since came to light that the administration was in fact briefed in February. Trump’s seeming inaction on this shocking revelation has not played well with the American public.

Another bizarre incident this past weekend came when Trump retweeted a video showing supporters in Florida driving golf carts covered in Trump 2020 signs and stickers. One of the men featured early in the video can very clearly be heard shouting “white power” twice. After several hours Trump deleted his tweet and denied seeing what the man said.

June 22-26

President Donald Trump’s terrible month of June continued in the third week of the month, with his odds to hold the presidency slipping to -18% against former Vice President Joe Biden on our Election Odds Tracker.

The previous week saw Biden grow his lead to more than 12%, a trend that’s been on the rise since the beginning of June. To start the week of June 22, Biden’s odds lead shot up by more than 50%.

Trump’s controversial rally in Tulsa, Okla. on June 20 was supposed to be a triumphant homecoming of sorts for the president, but only a fraction of the expected attendees showed up, around 6,200 in total.

Trump also set off a firestorm of speculation when he remarked on stage in Tulsa that he had ordered coronavirus testing to be slowed down after seeing the number of confirmed cases rising. White House aids dismissed his remarks as “a joke,” which has been a frequent refrain after Trump says something especially controversial.

June 15-19

The week of June 15 started with Biden still holding a hefty lead in the odds to defeat President Donald Trump in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Biden has continuously widened his lead over the president since the end of May. Earlier this month, Biden climbed to a double-digit lead over Trump as the favorite. His odds remain comfortably over +11% as of June 15.

The total amount wagered on the election with less than five months to go is approaching $50 million.

June 1-12

The month of June started off with a dramatic and sudden reversal in the odds on Betfair exchange, with Biden reversing the trend and overtaking Trump as of June 4.

It was the first time the odds favored Biden to win since mid-March, when the coronavirus was first declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization and social distancing began.

Even then Biden’s briefly held lead was less than 2%. The shift started amid perhaps the worst week of Trump’s presidency yet. The coronavirus remains a deadly threat, with the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 now surpassing 110,000 and 21 states showing a spike in cases. A majority of Americans (53%) disapprove of his administration’s handling of the crisis, a number that has continued to slide since the start of the pandemic.

Many of the nation’s big cities are still seeing daily protests against systemic racism following the death George Floyd, an unarmed black man, who was killed by a white Minneapolis police officer on May 25. Trump has also been widely criticized for his response to both Floyd’s killing and the protests that have sprung up around his death.