Latest articles

Hopeful Signs for PredictIt Plaintiffs Following Oral Arguments in Fifth Circuit

February 10, 2023 | By: Alex Weldon

It’s starting to look like the political futures market PredictIt may get to continue operating. Oral arguments in the legal battle to save the site took place in the Fifth Circuit on Feb. 8. According to reporting by Courthouse News, two of the three judges appeared inclined to side with PredictIt’s supporters, who are the plaintiffs in the […]

PredictIt Scores A Minor Win At Court Of Appeals, Avoiding Dismissal

January 18, 2023 | By: John Holden

Hope springs eternal for PredictIt, as the Commodities & Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has failed in its attempt to have the former’s court case thrown out. Those following the PredictIt saga know that as things stand, the site will have to shut down next month. That’s due to the CFTC’s revocation of a no-action letter […]

Betting Strategy for Election Markets & Uncertainty

November 30, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

Now that the midterms are over, major election races have been settled. Many of the Senate races have been settled with the winner priced at 99 cents on PredictIt and the loser at one cent. Analyzing what bettors missed in these races can inform betting strategy for election markets in the 2024 presidential race.  However, […]

Donald Trump Election Odds Before & After the Midterms

November 23, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

The Donald Trump election odds were high before the midterms. High inflation with rising interest rates made groceries more expensive and borrowing funds for homes and school more difficult. The challenging economy seemed to doom Democratic chances of holding both chambers of Congress. Historical midterm losses pointed to a Republican Congress.  Instead, Democrats held the […]

How PredictIt Prices Flipped During 2022 Midterms

November 9, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

Democrats fared better on election night than expected. Republicans are still expected to retake the House of Representatives, but Democrats have a chance to hold onto the Senate. PredictIt prices flipped on election night, and the balance of power market’s overround hit a high of 13 cents. Small changes in Election Night expectations have resulted […]

California Voters Firmly Rejected Sports Betting, But Proponents Will Keep Trying

November 9, 2022 | By: Heather Fletcher

Picture California sports betting propositions employing the voice of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and saying, “I’ll be back.” That’s precisely what’s going to happen in 2024, predicted professor Kathryn R.L. Rand during a recent University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) webinar about the ballot measures that failed yesterday. On Nov. 2, Rand predicted Propositions 26 […]

Impact of Election Deniers on Election Betting

November 8, 2022 | By: Chris Gerlacher

Two days after Joe Biden’s inauguration, the Independent Betting Adjudication Service (IBAS) in the United Kingdom released a statement defending the right of UK sportsbooks to settle 2020 presidential election bets. The impact of election deniers it stated in part:   “Following the inauguration ceremony on 20th January 2021, we can see no reason why […]

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