Latest articles
PredictIt Temporarily Safe from Shutdown as CFTC Issues New Letter, Rendering Current Case Moot
In a surprise legal move, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has retracted its August 2022 letter to PredictIt, only to issue a new one. By doing so, it says it has rendered PredictIt’s request for a preliminary injunction moot. Although this likely means that PredictIt can continue operating for now, the CFTC has issued a new […]
Hopeful Signs for PredictIt Plaintiffs Following Oral Arguments in Fifth Circuit
It’s starting to look like the political futures market PredictIt may get to continue operating. Oral arguments in the legal battle to save the site took place in the Fifth Circuit on Feb. 8. According to reporting by Courthouse News, two of the three judges appeared inclined to side with PredictIt’s supporters, who are the plaintiffs in the […]
Fifth Circuit Grants Injunction for PredictIt to Continue Operating Past Feb 15
The plaintiffs in the PredictIt case have obtained an injunction to keep the site up and running temporarily. That’s an essential reprieve with the original Feb 15 shutdown deadline now less than three weeks away. On Jan 18, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans laid out a timeline for the case. PredictIt, […]
PredictIt Scores A Minor Win At Court Of Appeals, Avoiding Dismissal
Hope springs eternal for PredictIt, as the Commodities & Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has failed in its attempt to have the former’s court case thrown out. Those following the PredictIt saga know that as things stand, the site will have to shut down next month. That’s due to the CFTC’s revocation of a no-action letter […]
Magistrate Judge Recommends Change of Venue for PredictIt Case, Denies Supplemental Memorandum
As the rest of us were enjoying the holidays, the PredictIt case was heating up. The flurry of activity began with a report and recommendation from the US Magistrate Judge who heard the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) motion to transfer the case from Austin to a federal court in DC. The CFTC is the […]
Betting Strategy for Election Markets & Uncertainty
Now that the midterms are over, major election races have been settled. Many of the Senate races have been settled with the winner priced at 99 cents on PredictIt and the loser at one cent. Analyzing what bettors missed in these races can inform betting strategy for election markets in the 2024 presidential race. However, […]
Donald Trump Election Odds Before & After the Midterms
The Donald Trump election odds were high before the midterms. High inflation with rising interest rates made groceries more expensive and borrowing funds for homes and school more difficult. The challenging economy seemed to doom Democratic chances of holding both chambers of Congress. Historical midterm losses pointed to a Republican Congress. Instead, Democrats held the […]
How PredictIt Prices Flipped During 2022 Midterms
Democrats fared better on election night than expected. Republicans are still expected to retake the House of Representatives, but Democrats have a chance to hold onto the Senate. PredictIt prices flipped on election night, and the balance of power market’s overround hit a high of 13 cents. Small changes in Election Night expectations have resulted […]
California Voters Firmly Rejected Sports Betting, But Proponents Will Keep Trying
Picture California sports betting propositions employing the voice of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and saying, “I’ll be back.” That’s precisely what’s going to happen in 2024, predicted professor Kathryn R.L. Rand during a recent University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) webinar about the ballot measures that failed yesterday. On Nov. 2, Rand predicted Propositions 26 […]
Impact of Election Deniers on Election Betting
Two days after Joe Biden’s inauguration, the Independent Betting Adjudication Service (IBAS) in the United Kingdom released a statement defending the right of UK sportsbooks to settle 2020 presidential election bets. The impact of election deniers it stated in part: “Following the inauguration ceremony on 20th January 2021, we can see no reason why […]