President Trump’s failure to land any of his numerous attacks on Joe Biden has stabilized the former vice president’s lead in the Bonus.com US Presidential Election Odds Tracker. Biden reached a 60 percent probability on the Tracker on July 16 and has not dipped below the threshold since that date. Biden currently holds a 24-point lead on Trump at press time.
With just three months left before election day, Trump continues to be haunted by an overall lack of traction among Independents and suburban voters who crossed the aisle, voting for Democrats in 2018 midterms.
Trump Starts Week With Disastrous Axios Interview
Last week, President Trump sat down for a one-on-one interview with Axios’ Jonathan Swan at the White House. Sunday night, the interview aired on HBO, and his performance left many in political circles scratching their heads.
During the 38-minute interview, Trump brought printed graphs to argue he is doing great with the coronavirus response, wished alleged sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell well (again), and repeated a claim that nations could do too much coronavirus testing.
Swan received high praise for his interview skills as he repeatedly pushed back on many of Trump’s claims, seemingly fact-checking the President in real-time.
Perhaps the most significant gift to the Biden campaign during the interview came after Trump claimed that the outbreak is “under control.” Swan responded with a question about how the virus could be under control when over 1,000 people are dying each day in America.
Trump responded with, “They are dying. That’s true. And it is what it is.” The President did follow with, “But that doesn’t mean we aren’t doing everything we can. It’s under control, as much as you can control it.” But in the age of the soundbite, the President’s lack of empathy will continue to be the focus of attack by the Biden camp.
Biden’s Search For Vice President
Reports suggest that Biden plans to unveil his pick for vice president next week. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, a co-chair of Biden’s VP presidential selection committee, told MSNBC that the finalists would spend time with the nominee before finalizing his decision. “I know he’s going to pick a vice president who reflects the same relationship he had with Barack Obama,” Garcetti said.
Although the finalists have not been officially announced, many political experts believe the shortlist includes Senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Tammy Duckworth along with U.S. Rep. Karen Bass and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice.
Since Biden’s announcement that his vice president would be a woman, Harris has maintained the top spot among bookmakers. According to Betfair, Harris held -175 odds last weekend as the favorite with Rice in second place at +333. None of the other reported finalists registered lowered than +1000 odds, putting them well into longshot range.
CNBC reports that Biden’s VP announcement will coincide with a massive fundraising effort to combat President Trump’s cash advantage heading into the campaign’s final months. Private virtual fundraisers will be hosted by Wall Street titans and Hollywood superstars such as actor George Clooney and co-founder of Andell Inc., Andrew Hauptman.
The fundraisers will offer participants exclusive access to Biden and his VP nominee. Other solo virtual fundraisers are planned for the VP choice to allow donors the opportunity to hear from the nominee directly.
Both Campaigns Tighten Focus With Early Voting On Horizon
For both campaigns, August is an incredibly important month. In states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, absentee ballots hit mailboxes starting in early September.
One of the biggest obstacles Trump needs to overcome is the disgruntled voter. Much in the same way that anger led him to the White House in 2016, it may be the main reason he loses his job come November.
In the latest Gallup poll, satisfaction among Americans fell to just 13%. That’s the lowest mark since early November of 2012, when only 12% of respondents claimed they were happy with the direction of the nation.
Satisfaction among Republicans fell by almost half from last month, dropping from 39% to just 20% in July. But even with their dissatisfaction, 91% of Republicans approved of Trump’s job performance.
In contrast, just 7% of Democrats responded they were satisfied with where America is headed under Trump.
August should provide plenty of fireworks for election aficionados as Biden’s running mate pick and Trump’s attempts at resetting his campaign will take center stage.
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