With less than 70 days to the election, the Bonus.com US Presidential Election Odds Tracker shows a tightening race between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The former vice president holds a 10-point advantage over Trump in the latest tracker, leading 55% to 44.69%. The narrowing deficit signals a tightening race as both candidates begin their preparation for their first debate on Sept. 29.
Conventions Are For Attacks
Last week, the Democrats rolled out a star-studded National Convention attacking Pres. Trump on his COVID-19 response. This week, the Republican’s convention returned volley with accusations that Biden is light on crime and mentally unfit for office.
The convention coincided with protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, over the police-involved shooting death of Jacob Blake. The demonstrations turned deadly on Tuesday night when a 17-year old male from Illinois killed two protesters with an AR-15.
The Trump campaign hopes to frame the debate over police support as the central issue of the election’s final days. While Biden has repeatedly rejected insinuations that he wants to defund police, spokespeople for Trump suggest otherwise.
This Week in Presidential Polling
What Advanced Metrics Say About Trump’s Chances
Political sites like FiveThirtyEight.com continue to show Biden as a heavy favorite but warn that Trump’s chances are not bleak. In their latest forecast, the site gives Biden a 69% probability of winning the election. Pres. Trump wins the presidency around 30% of its 2020 election simulations.
The Economist’s weekly Election predictor paints a far rosier picture for Biden supporters. In their latest predictions, Biden holds a 90% chance of winning the election and a 98% probability of winning the popular vote.
Six States Will Decide the Election
For Trump to replicate his 2016 election win, he’ll need to win six swing states. In Change Research and CNBC’s latest poll, Trump has shrunk Biden’s lead in all six battleground states. Although Biden leads nationally in the poll, 51%-43%, Trump made strides in crucial areas such as Florida and Pennsylvania.
Biden leads in Florida by just 3%, dropping 3% from the CNBC poll two weeks ago. In Pennsylvania, Trump gained two points and closed Biden’s polling lead to 49%-46%.
Along with Florida and Pennsylvania, the states of Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Arizona round out the six swing states.
Although some political pundits argue that Ohio, Texas, and other red states are in play for Biden, his campaign hopes to win at least three of the six swing states to narrow Trump’s path to re-election.
The Campaigns Look Ahead
Trump Braces For More Damaging Books
Over the next four weeks, Trump’s campaign braces for two books that could damage his campaign. The first, by Michael Cohen, titled Disloyal: A Memoir, promises to share inside stories of his time with the President. Cohen has teased an extensive publicity tour to promote the book’s release on Sept. 7.
Bob Woodward’s second book about the Trump Presidency, Rage, could be the one that causes more problems for the President. Woodward sat with Trump for interviews for the book tackling his actions over the past couple of years, including his handling of the first days of the coronavirus outbreak.
Although he sat with Woodward on multiple occasions, Trump has already taken to Twitter to decry the book as “fake.”
Biden Looks To Build Wide Coalition
The Biden campaign continues to build a coalition of former Republicans voicing their support for the former vice president. This week, Biden added former Arizona senator Jeff Flake to his growing roster of converts.
In a Facebook video, Flake said, “After the turmoil of the past four years, we need a president who unifies rather than divides. We need a president who prefers teamwork to tribalism.”
Biden’s campaign will look not to repeat past mistakes, notably Hillary Clinton’s 2016 missteps down the stretch that cost her the Electoral College.
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