Could Trump Drop Out of the 2020 US Presidential Election?

The possibility of President Donald Trump dropping out of the 2020 US Presidential Election caused a slight tremor in the Election Odds Tracker this week. While the actual probability of Trump leaving the 2020 Presidential race remains slim, bookmakers have adjusted their markets to reflect the chance.

Joe Biden’s lead has shrunk inside 20%, with the former VP holding at a 57.7% likelihood of election against 38.3% for Pres. Trump. Bookmakers are giving a potential replacement for Trump around a 4% probability of winning the White House.

This Week In Polls For President Trump

After the fireworks haze of the July 4th weekend cleared, President Trump was greeted Monday morning with another lousy poll for his re-election chances. The pollsters at Gallup announced that in their latest survey, Pres. Trump’s approval rating stood at 38%.

While that figure remained steady from past polls, the subsection of voters approving his performance as President continued to show troubling signs for Trump’s odds for a second term.

Although 91% of Republicans approve of Trump’s job performance, just 33% of independents and 2% of Democrats share that belief. Another demographic Trump can ill afford to lose is men. Gallup’s latest poll showed a seven percent drop in approval with males from 53% to 46% in just over a month.

How Covid-19 Continues To Suppress Trump’s Support

One of the positives in recent weeks for Trump came from the monthly jobs report. The latest employment report showed a rebound of 4.8 million jobs. The number stunned economists who expected around 2.9 million.

“All of this incredible news is the result of historic actions my administration has taken,” Trump said at a press conference to celebrate the numbers.

While the employment figures were encouraging, there is a slight wrinkle that could dampen the excitement. The added jobs total are only measured through mid-June. The surge in Covid-19 cases in Texas, Georgia, and Florida began around that point.

The US Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey shows that over the last two weeks, possibly due to the resurgence of the virus in the south, employment has fallen by 1.3 million jobs.

Trump’s Attempts To Pigeonhole Biden Falling Flat So Far

During his 2016 primary and Presidential run, one of Trump’s strengths was his ability to create clever nicknames for opponents. From “Crooked” Hilary to “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, Trump’s record for finding sticky nicknames that wounded an opponent was unmatched.

But, in a microcosm of how his campaign is going, Trump has yet to find a damaging nickname or way to land punches on Biden. With “Sleepy Joe” out to a ten-point advantage over Trump in national polls, will Trump find a way to tackle his opponent?

With Clinton in 2016, Trump had three decades worth of material on her to use as fodder for his attacks. But Biden’s attachment to Pres. Obama and his proficiency in pushing a message of restoring America’s image could prove hard to combat.

Trump might not have a chance to confront Biden until the first debate in late-September. By then, it may be far too late for the President to turn around his sinking re-election bid.

Does Trump Actually Want To Be President?

With sagging poll numbers, a cultural crisis, and a pandemic all taking chunks from Trump’s coalition of voters, the question must be asked if the President actually wants to win a second term.

Heading into the 2000 election, Bill Clinton had led America to a robust economy, but the nation had become weary of his lying in the wake of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Across the board, Al Gore polled better in a variety of areas critical to the presidency. But with a nation exhausted by scandal, George W. Bush preached a message of restoring the country’s values. In a closely contested battle, Bush won the presidency by pushing a similar message trumpeted by Biden.

The country faces a similar decision in 2020. Trump shows a support advantage among voters regarding rebuilding the economy, but he struggles everywhere else. Barring a Hail Mary, could the country already be tired of Trump’s act and ready to put a lifelong politician in the White House that feels safe and predictable?

These dangling questions are why bookmakers continue to float the possibility that Trump may drop out. But time is running out on that decision and, perhaps, Trump’s ability to make the case to the nation that he deserves another chance.

About the Author

Derek Worlow

Derek Worlow

Derek Worlow is a writer by trade with more than seven years of experience writing for several Fortune 500 companies. In his free time, he enjoys trading sports and stock markets, as well as watching NCAA football and English Premier League soccer.
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