Trump vs. Biden was always expected to be a chaotic affair with plenty of back and forth action between the two sides. The peaks and valleys between the two candidates on Tuesday far surpassed even the wildest expectations for Election Day on the Bonus.com 2020 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker. Shortly after the first round of East Coast polling closed on Tuesday we saw Donald Trump jump from a betting underdog to a strong favorite in just a few hours.
Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden would take turns throughout the night as heavy favorites and underdogs as the results rolled in state by state.
Mail-in ballots were the outlier that oddsmakers and bettors may not have foreseen affecting the outcome. Trump’s odds would fire up late in the night, eerily similar to his shocking victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump looked primed to run away with this election taking big early leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but the mail-in ballots clearly favored Biden.
Thankfully using our Election Odds Tracker, we can replay the tape, looking at minute-by-minute coverage of the biggest odds shifts and the corresponding events to explain them. What follows is a brief synopsis of the key events and betting odds to recap one of the wildest elections in recent memory.
Trump Becomes A Massive Favorite 2 Hours After First Poll Closings (9:20 PM ET.)
Donald Trump had not been a favorite to win the election since late May when he ceded his lead to Joe Biden. Biden would not relinquish that lead until this moment when Florida and Ohio polling results began coming in. The shift was probably propelled by the revelation that Biden had badly underperformed among Hispanic voters, most notably in Miami-Dade County, where Biden did worse than Hillary by more than 20 percentage points. Trump would go on to comfortably win Florida. The odds began to shift towards Trump minute by minute as more news started to come in.
Later that hour, Ohio polling started to come in and showed the incumbent out to an early lead. One of the most important states in the country, Ohio has not picked voted for the wrong candidate in office since 1960. Furthermore, Ohio has only voted for the losing president twice since 1896. When the Ohio balloting results started coming in, Trump took a huge stranglehold on the election.
At 10 PM EST. Donald Trump took his biggest lead of the year to win the election. His dominating Florida and Ohio numbers led to a 72.7% chance to return to this nation as president.
The odds were officially looking bleak for Joe Biden to win the election in 2020.
Biden Roars Back While You Were Sleeping (2:30 AM ET.)
With momentum on his side, the President almost certainly did not expect the tides to turn while most of the world was in bed. Biden was surely nervous after losses in Ohio and Florida, key battleground states which were opportunities for Biden to close out the night early. Up until this moment, Trump was winning all of the states that he won in the last election.
The surprise swing state of Arizona is now expected to turn Democratic, according to the Associated Press. Arizona holds 11 crucial electoral votes. The shocking change of fortune for Biden shows a huge change in our odds graphics. Biden dropped as low as 32.64% odds when the Ohio and Florida news dropped. He would quickly jump to 61.18% when Arizona looked prime to be a democratic state.
Biden has not relinquished this lead since 2:30 AM ET. Below are the unbelievable odd shifts that took place last night.
3:30 PM ET – Biden: 67.84% Trump: 33.8%
5:10 PM ET. Biden: 54. 61% Trump: 46.39% (-13 for Biden, +13 for Trump)
6:20 PM ET. Biden: 27.2% Trump: 72.7% (-27 for Biden, +26 for Trump)
10:40 PM ET. Biden: 33.79% Trump: 66.16% (+5 for Biden, -6 for Trump)
2:30 AM ET. Biden: 61.18% Trump: 39.54% (+28 for Biden, -27 for Trump)
5:20 AM ET. Biden: 79.03% Trump: 21.51% (+18 for Biden, -18 for Trump)
Since the Arizona numbers dropped, Joe Biden has added Wisconsin and Michigan to his win column. As of this writing, Biden sits at 253 electoral votes to President Trump’s 213. If Biden wins Nevada and Arizona, both of which are leaning in his favor, he will become the 46th President of the United States.
Pennsylvania mail-in ballots, which historically tend to lean Democratic, are still being counted. Expect this to draw on for some time as ballots continue to be counted, and recounted. We will continue to have updates on our presidential election, and minute by minute odds changes.