US Presidential Election Odds News Monthly Recap: August 2020

August saw a major trend reversal in the odds to win the 2020 US presidential election, and Democrats should be sweating right about now with Biden’s lead in low single-digits and the election just two months away.

All summer long former Vice President Joe Biden widened his lead over President Donald Trump, on the Bonus.com Election Odds Tracker, starting at the very beginning of June. At times Biden led in the odds by as much as 28%, as of this writing, his lead sits at just under 5% as the favorite to win the presidency.

September is shaping up to be a major month for the campaigns, with the first of three planned debates set for Sept. 29 from Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. We’ll be bringing that news as it happens, but for now here’s our week-by-week recap of the 2020 US presidential election news for August.

Aug. 24-28

With the Democratic National Convention held last week, and the Republican National Convention in full swing this week, it’s safe to say the 2020 campaign season is in full swing.

The Democrats attempted to strike a kinder, gentler tone in their convention, which was conducted purely virtually including dozens participating via Zoom calls. This race is all about contrast, with the Democrats positioning themselves as the adults in the room, promising a return to order and normalcy in the White House. The convention also heavily touched on the party’s ongoing commitment to addressing systemic racism. Biden’s keynote address was widely hailed as a success, but the Democrats failed to pick up the traditional post-convention bump.

The Republicans on the other hand have taken more of a doom-and-gloom approach. To hear them tell it, electing Joe Biden would usher in a socialist dystopia, undoing the American way of life itself. The big-ticket speakers for the Republicans have heavily featured members of the Trump family, including Trump’s daughter Tiffany, who has rarely injected herself into politics.

Playing the fear card may be working, however, as Biden’s lead has been cut to just over 7% as of Aug. 27. The race hasn’t been this close all summer long, and shows how quickly the fortunes of the candidates can change. Biden has led by as much as 28% since May.

Aug. 17-21

With less than 80 days to go until the 2020 US presidential election, the race has tightened somewhat, with former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead slipping to just below 17% over President Donald Trump on the Bonus.com 2020 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker.

The odds swung in Biden’s favor almost like clockwork on June 1, and Trump has so far failed to stop the bleeding. Biden’s announcement that Kamala Harris would be his running mate shook up the race last week, and she’s already proven herself to be willing and able to stand up to Trump’s attacks. Trump has already trotted out his old tactics of calling Harris’ eligibility into question, the same way he did with former President Barack Obama with the so-called birther conspiracy theory. Harris responded deftly to this line of attacks, accusing the Trump campaign of “an attempt to distract from the real issues facing the American people.

The big discussion in Washington this week centers around whether the United States Postal Service is up for the task of handling the influx of ballots in an election conducted mostly by mail-in. Trump has waged a campaign in recent weeks to undermine the USPS’s capabilities, as well as that of mail-in voting itself (despite him casting his own ballot by mail). In response, the postal service itself has stated that it has all of the necessary equipment and personnel to handle the deluge, even in the midst of the pandemic.

Worried about potential election interference through the post office, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has called the House of Representatives back from summer recess into an emergency session, attempting to shore up the USPS’s ability to carry out its duties and ensure the ballots cast are counted.

Aug. 10-14

Vice President Joe Biden shook up the race this week by announcing his pick for VP would be Calif. Sen. Kamala Harris. Biden’s odds got a quick 2 point bump on the news, which has since subsided, but Biden’s lead remains significant over the incumbent. As of this writing Biden retains a nearly 20% lead across the Bonus.com Election Odds Tracker

President Donald Trump has seen the momentum shift his way slightly as Election Day looms, but he still has significant ground to make up if he has a chance of defeating former Vice President Joe Biden.

As of Monday, Aug. 10, Biden’s lead on the Bonus.com US Presidential Election Odds Tracker has been cut to less than 20%. Biden has led in the odds by as much as 28% in recent months, and began to open a significant lead over the president at the end of May.

The upcoming presidential debates, the first of which is scheduled for Sept. 29, are expected to be significant in this election cycle. Trump has leveled frequent attacks against Biden’s mental state and fitness to serve as the campaign heats up, and seeing the men duke it out on stage will likely either put those attacks to rest or give them added credence.

Aug. 3-7

With three months to go until Election Day, President Donald Trump has some serious work to do if he’s going to turn his floundering campaign around. Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden nationally, including in key battleground states Trump carried in 2016 like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

As they say, the only poll that matters is Election Day, but the strategy that seems to be taking shape in the president’s re-election is to attack Biden’s health, repeatedly calling into question his mental fitness to serve.

In an attempt at a power move, the Trump campaign is now pushing to hold more than the traditional three presidential debates. They also want to move the the first debate up from its current Sept. 29 date. Instead of attacking Biden’s positions on the issues, Trump’s campaign has resorted to the ugliest form of political tactics, both in personally attacking his rival and stoking fear among the electorate. It’s a divisive and risky strategy that is not in any way guaranteed to pay off.

The president and his supporters in recent weeks have also attempted to undermine the nation’s confidence in mail-in voting, despite the fact that the president himself said he plans to vote by mail in 2020.