With several Canadian elections on the horizon, BetMGM Canada has expanded its political betting markets for customers in the Heartland Province. The new markets include opportunities to wager on the outcome of the fast-approaching Ontario provincial election, the Liberal leadership race, and the next federal election.
Detail-oriented players at BetMGM Ontario can also bet on propositions like when the next federal election will kick off, Canada’s next pick for Governor-General, and whether we’ll see our first elected female Prime Minister—Kim Campbell notwithstanding, as she didn’t win the position in an election.
Carney leads Freeland in Liberal leadership race
As of this afternoon, Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney is a substantial favourite (-5000) to succeed Justin Trudeau as party leader and Prime Minister. The odds place former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland in a distant second place behind the former governor of the Banks of Canada and England (+1200). Previous government House Leader Karina Gould is 4th in the 5-option field at +6600.
Of course, all current odds are subject to change. However, as the markets currently stand, a $5,000 bet on Carney would earn $100 in profit. Conversely, a $100 bet on Freeland would result in a $1,200 windfall if she wins the leadership race.
Canadian political commentator Amanda Galbraith noted in the release that while Carney’s leadership triumph seems almost assured, federal election odds are more volatile.
The markets suggest that most Canadians see a Mark Carney win in the Liberal leadership as a foregone conclusion – but they’re nowhere near ready to predict his victory over Pierre Poilievre in the general election. Given the unpredictable nature of the current political environment, we may well see some volatility in these odds over the coming weeks.
For now, the Conservative Party is the favourite (-400) to win the most seats in the next Canada-wide election, with Liberals solidly in second at +275.
Ford maintains lead as Ontario election approaches
Because of Premier Doug Ford’s wide lead, BetMGM restricted its provincial election market to which party wins second place in the Ontario legislature.
Currently, odds favour the Liberals as the most likely official opposition at -275, followed by the NDP (+175), Conservatives (+2000), and Green Party (+10000).
Regarding Canada’s next Governor-General, BetMGM has retired astronaut Chris Hadfield in the lead of a crowded field at +600. Canada’s first—albeit short-lived—female Prime Minister, Kim Campbell, ranks third at +1000.
Further down the 16-person list is embattled psychologist and alt-right media commentator Jordan Peterson in 10th place (+2000). Also included are former PM Stephen Harper (+800), novelist Margaret Atwood (+1800), and “Mr. Wonderful” Kevin O’Leary (+1600).
Meanwhile, “The Great One” Wayne Gretzky (+5000), Canadian chanteuse Celine Dion (+5000), and ‘Roman Salute’ aficionado Elon Musk (+6600) bring up the rear.
The market for Canada’s first elected woman Prime Minister has Freeland leading the pack at +500, ahead of Melanie Joly (+800). Notably, Canadian country singer Shania Twain comes seventh, closing the options at +5000.
Finally, two markets weigh Quebec’s chance of voting to separate from Canada by 2031. The odds indicate a Quebec departure is more unlikely (-500) than not (+350).
Federal election popular among Ontario operators
In addition to BetMGM, several Ontario-facing operators offer limited federal election markets, including bet365, BetVictor, FanDuel, Fitzdares, PartySports, and Sports Interaction.
Under Canadian law, the next federal election must happen before Oct. 20. However, BetMGM’s odds suggest Trudeau will call the election by either the end of March (-325) or May’s close (+400).
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