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Prediction markets may be booming in the United States, but Canadian regulators are taking a more cautious approach. In an April 2, 2026 notice, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), alongside the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), reaffirmed that event contracts tied to securities or derivatives must comply with existing laws, including strict registration requirements.
The reminder also pointed to Canada’s longstanding ban on short-term binary options, which prohibits offering or advertising contracts that resolve in less than 30 days in certain jurisdictions.
Taken together, the notice signals a push to clarify how prediction markets fit within Canada’s regulatory framework—though opinions remain divided on whether it’s a necessary safeguard or a step that doesn’t go far enough.
Polymarket Flyers in Toronto Prompted Warning
Prediction markets are platforms that allow trading of yes/no event contracts. Unlike sportsbooks or online casinos in Canada that pay out immediately after reaching a game outcome, these contracts pay out based on the outcome of future events.
Within Canada’s regulatory landscape, prediction markets remain largely restricted. Federal gambling prohibitions under the Criminal Code, combined with the CSA’s explicit ban on trading binary options, leave little to no room for independent prediction market platforms to function.
That’s why when the Globe and Mail reported on April 2, 2026 that Polymarket flyers — complete with sign-up offers — were being distributed outside Toronto’s Rogers Centre before, during, and after a Blue Jays game, the CSA and CIRO moved quickly to issue their joint warning. The timing was hard to ignore.
Ontario has enforced restrictions on binary options trading since 2017, and the OSC took it a step further in 2025 when it banned Polymarket from operating or advertising in the province for two years after the company acknowledged breaking Ontario’s rules. Against that backdrop, promotional materials being handed to fans at one of the city’s most recognizable venues was a direct violation in plain sight. Regulators had little choice but to respond.
An Exception to the Ban on Trading Binary Options
Enforced since 2017, the CSA prohibits any entities from advertising, offering, and trading yes/no ‘binary options’ that resolve in less than 30 days. However, the CIRO offers an exemption to the rule.
According to a release dated March 26, 2026, event contracts are legal in Canada, but only under a tightly defined set of terms that CIRO developed in consultation with CSA members. Allowed categories are only those involving economic forecasts, environmental forecasts, and financial indicators.
Sports outcomes, election results, and political events — which is what platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are famous for — are explicitly off the table. So too are any contracts tied to activities that would be unlawful under Canadian federal, provincial, or territorial law.
Maturity dates for these event contracts matter as well. Any permitted prediction market contract must take at least 30 days to resolve, disqualifying the fast-turnaround sports and event contracts that have driven the explosion of interest in prediction markets south of the border.
In practice, the exemption leaves very little room for the kind of product that has made prediction markets a cultural moment in the United States. Nonetheless, Interactive Brokers and Wealthsimple, which don’t offer sports trading, have still managed to acquire a green light to trade these limited sets of event contracts as authorized Dealer members in Canada.
Also worth mentioning is that CIRO was also careful to signal that the current framework is not the final word. The regulator noted in its release that it continues to monitor developments in the prediction markets space and may impose further restrictions down the line — a reminder that the rules governing this industry in Canada are still being written.
“CIRO and the CSA continue to monitor developments with prediction markets and event contracts and intend to issue further guidance which could result in the imposition of further restrictions,” CIRO stated in the March 26 announcement.
What All This Means for Alberta iGaming
Canada has surely not experienced the same prediction market frenzy as the United States, but Canadians have been watching just as much as the Canadian securities regulators. And as domestic investment firms begin exploring whether there is money to be made in the space, the regulatory tension building at the federal level is starting to feel very close to home — particularly in Alberta.
A recent CBC news report added a new dimension to the conversation, revealing that prediction market users have been placing wagers on Alberta separatism on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Even though Kalshi bans Canadians from accessing its platform and Ontario residents cannot access Polymarket from within the province, those in other Canadian provinces and territories can still trade on Polymarket’s global site. In other words, Canadians outside Ontario can participate in exactly the kind of politically sensitive contracts that Canadian regulators have explicitly prohibited.
As such, the existence of such contracts raises two uncomfortable questions. One is whether that kind of politically charged betting should be allowed at all. The second is whether the mere act of trading on a referendum outcome could influence public sentiment around it. It is the kind of scenario that CIRO’s rules were seemingly designed to prevent — event contracts tied to political outcomes are explicitly prohibited under the current framework — yet the market found a way in regardless.
For the upcoming Alberta online casino and sports betting markets, the broader regulatory crackdown signals a tightening environment operators will need to navigate carefully. The joint CSA and CIRO notice came at a moment when prediction markets are pushing into new territory, both geographically and politically, and regulators are visibly uncomfortable with the pace of that expansion.
Any Alberta-based operator with ambitions in the prediction market space would be wise to treat the April notice as a floor — with more restrictions potentially on the way.
