Best Prediction Market Apps: Top Prediction Markets & How They Work

The best prediction market apps let you trade on the outcome of real-world events, from March Madness and elections to inflation reports, crypto prices, pop culture headlines, and more. Instead of placing a traditional bet against a sportsbook, you buy and sell event contracts based on whether something will or won’t happen...Read More

Best Prediction Market Apps in June 2026

1

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Disclosure: Bonus.com may receive compensation from the prediction market platforms featured on this page. This helps support our work, but it does not affect how we evaluate or rank platforms. Our goal is to provide accurate, unbiased information to help you make informed decisions.

Recent Changes to Prediction Markets This Year

Prediction markets are getting much bigger in 2026. What used to be a niche trading category is now attracting major sportsbooks, crypto companies, sports leagues, and regulators.

Here are the biggest changes:

• Major brands are entering the space: FanDuel Predicts, Fanatics Markets, Crypto.com, Kalshi, and other platforms are making prediction market sites and apps more mainstream.
• Sports markets are heating up: Sports event contracts are one of the fastest-growing parts of the category, but they’re also one of the most legally debated. Some states argue they look too much like unlicensed sports betting.
• Regulators are watching closely: The CFTC remains central to the prediction market conversation, while state gaming regulators are pushing back in some markets.
• Sports leagues are paying attention: Leagues are increasingly focused on market integrity, insider information, and whether prediction markets could create risks around match-fixing or suspicious trading.
• Polymarket could become a bigger US factor: After working toward a regulated US return, Polymarket could add even more competition to an already crowded prediction market app race.

For users, the takeaway is simple: prediction markets are more mainstream than ever, but rules, availability, fees, and markets can change quickly. Always check your state eligibility and the platform’s latest terms before trading.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where you can bet on the outcome of future events. On prediction market apps, you can buy or sell contracts linked to real-world outcomes.
Each contract focuses on a specific yes/no question, such as:

• Will inflation be above 3%?
• Will the Dallas Cowboys win an NFL game?
• Will Bitcoin get above $150,000 this year?

If the event happens, the contract pays $1. If not, the contract pays $0.

Each contract on a prediction market app has a price, between $0 and $1. That price reflects market sentiment – how likely traders think the event is to occur.

For example, if a contract is trading at $0.65, the market is effectively saying that there’s a 65% chance that the event will happen. If you agree, you can buy at $0.65. Every contract settles at either $0 or $1, so you always know exactly how much you stand to win or lose.

Prediction apps offer event contracts on hundreds of events each week. They cover politics, sports, culture, crypto, climate, economics, companies, health stats, and much more.

Our Favorite Prediction Market Apps Right Now

Whether you’re into sports, politics, or culture, prediction markets have provided a forum for individuals across the US to make trades and track sentiment on their favorite things. People have several options when it comes to prediction market apps — here are some of the best choices right now.

Simple Definition for US Bettors

When you place a wager at a sportsbook, you’re betting against the house. If you win, the sportsbook will pay you. If you lose, the sportsbook keeps your stake (bet amount).

Prediction markets work differently. Instead of betting against a bookmaker, you’re trading with other users. They’re similar to stock markets.

Apps like Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel Predicts, and DraftKings Predictions act as marketplaces. They match buyers and sellers, and they charge a small fee for hosting and clearing trades. For that reason, it’s important to choose a prediction site with strong liquidity – lots of active traders.

Prediction Markets Explained

We can use a simple example to explain how prediction markets work. Let’s say you want to make a prediction on the Super Bowl winner. These are the options:

• Seattle Seahawks – yes 14¢, no 87¢
• Los Angeles Rams – yes 14¢, no 87¢
• Buffalo Bills – yes 12¢, no 89¢
• New England Patriots – yes 9¢, no 91¢
• Philadelphia Eagles – yes 9¢, no 91¢

Let’s say you think the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, and you want to risk $100. Follow these steps:

1. Hit the “Yes” button next to New England. Your selection will then appear in a new window, which will pop up in the middle of the screen.
2. You’ll see that the price is 9¢. Type “100” into the “Amount” section.
3. The site will tell you that you’re buying 1,112 contracts at 9¢ each. That will cost you $100, and the payout will be $1,112 if the Pats win the Super Bowl.
4. You can then tap the screen to confirm the trade.

You can then wait until mid-February. If you don’t sell your postion, you’ll win $1,112 if the Patriots win the Super Bowl. If another team wins, you’ll lose your $100 investment.

Alternatively, you can sell your contract before the event finishes. For instance, let’s say the Pats win the AFC, and they’re then priced at $0.55 to win the Super Bowl. At that point, you could sell your 1,112 contracts for $0.55, and you’ll be paid $611.60.

This is similar to cashing out an open bet at an online sportsbook. Another option is to sell some of your contracts and leave the rest riding on the Super Bowl. This gives you a great deal of flexibility.

Prediction Market Prices vs. Sportsbook Odds

Sportsbook odds tell you two things:

• The profit you’ll earn if the bet wins.
• The implied probability of the bet winning.

For example, a sportsbook might offer +500 on the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the Easter Conference. That means a $100 bet would deliver a $500 profit. You get your stake back on winning bets, so your total return would be $600. The odds also give the Cavs a 16.7% implied probability of success.

The prices at a prediction site provide the same information. It’s just formatted differently. For example, you might find this option:

• Cleveland to win the Eastern Conference – yes 17¢, no 84¢

That price tells you that a $100 investment would deliver a $589 return. It also implies that the Cavs have a 17% chance of winning the Eastern Conference.

Sportsbook Vig vs. Prediction Market Fees

Sportsbooks make money by building a house edge into their betting lines. It’s known as the juice, the vigorish, or the vig. Here’s an example:

• Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers (-110)

That means you’d need to risk $110 to win $100 on either team. It gives the house an edge of 4.77%. You need to overcome the vig to earn a long-term profit as a sports bettor. If you can win at least 55% of your bets, you’ll profit, but that’s challenging.

In sports prediction markets, you don’t need to beat the bookmaker’s margin. You only need to beat other trader’s opinions. In many markets, that’s a much lower bar.

Apps like Kalshi, FanDuel Predictions, and DraftKings Predictions don’t set odds. They don’t take the opposite side of your trade, and they don’t adjust prices to guarantee a profit.

Instead, they act like stock exchanges or futures exchanges. Here’s how they earn money:

• The top prediction markets sites take a fee on each trade.
• This fee varies depending on the price of the contract.
• For example, it’s normally $0.07 to $1.75 per 100 contracts on Kalshi.

The typical cost of a trade is often 0.5% to 2%. That’s significantly lower than the standard 4.77% juice that sportsbooks build into their lines.

Prediction sites earn money when trading volume increases, not when users lose. Their fees are often far lower than a sportsbook’s vig, which can boost your chances of earning a profit.

Leading Prediction Markets

These are some of the top prediction markets platforms right now:

Common Use Cases

The best prediction sites cover everything from the next Pope to whether it will rain in New York City on a certain day. However, most prediction markets fall into five key categories:

Elections & political forecasting

These prediction markets focus on elections, approval ratings, and much more. You can predict whether a bill will pass, whether the president will be impeached, or the balance of power in Congress.

Political prediction betting markets often outperform traditional polls. Users are risking their money, rather than simply answering surveys, which often leads to greater accuracy. That was certainly the case in the build-up to the 2024 presidential election.

Prices update instantly after news breaks, debates unfold, or scandals emerge. These markets are useful indicators of real-time political sentiment. They’re the most controversial prediction markets, as they touch democratic processes. The regulators scrutinize these markets closely, but they’re extremely popular.

Sports prediction markets

Sports prediction markets look similar to traditional betting. You’ll find markets on the game winner, plus spreads and totals. There are lots of futures markets too. You can predict which team will win a tournament, who will win an award, whether a team will make the playoffs, and so on.

However, prediction markets are different to sports betting in a few key ways. They’re peer-to-peer, so you aren’t taking on the house. You simply buy “Yes” or “No” contracts, which always settle at either $0 or $1. These futures contracts fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC at regulated sites.

Some regulators have pushed back against sports prediction markets, claiming they resemble unlicensed sports betting. This has made sports one of the most legally contentious prediction market categories, but it’s also very popular among traders.

Finance, stocks, macro indicators

These contracts focus on economic data and financial markets. Examples include inflation prints, interest rate decisions, the price of oil, and GDP growth. You can also make predictions about whether a stock index, such as the S&P 500, will hit a certain level.

There are lots of prediction markets on individual companies too. For example, the number of Tesla deliveries in a quarter, or what Google will say in its next earnings call.

Traders use these markets to hedge against uncertainty. They can also speculate on macro trends without using complex derivatives. These markets face fewer regulatory objections than other prediction markets, and they help platforms build credibility.

Crypto markets

Most crypto prediction markets focus on the price of specific coins. For example, you can predict how Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, or Dogecoin will perform this year.

They’re always popular, but you’ll find lots of other markets too. The best prediction sites offer contracts on ETF approvals, airdrops, upgrades, and more. You can even speculate on whether Satoshi Nakamoto will move any Bitcoin.

Crypto prediction markets are often decentralized. However, you’ll also find loads of crypto markets on high-profile apps like Kalshi. They help crypto holders hedge against volatility, and they also serve as useful forecasting tools.

Superforecasting communities

These communities are made up of the most accurate forecasters. For example, a community might include the analysts that were in the top 0.1% for accuracy for several years in a row.

You can ask these “superforecasters” questions and use an aggregate of their predictions to make decisions. The participants make predictions on geopolitical risks, innovative new products, scientific breakthroughs, and so on.

The U.S. intelligence community tested this method in a rigorous forecasting tournament, and the results were eye-opening. If a forecast was made with 20% confidence, it generally came true 20% of the time. If the forecast had 75% confidence, it came true around 75% of the time. It’s not a crystal ball, but governments and companies can use the predictions to shape policy or commercial strategies.

Prediction Markets vs Licensed US Sportsbooks

This chart explains how sports prediction markets compare to traditional wagering at licensed US sportsbooks.

Benefits and Drawbacks

Here are some of the key advantages and disadvantages of prediction market platforms.

Benefits

• Strong forecasting accuracy. Prediction markets often outperform polls and expert panels, as there’s money at stake. That really sharpens the mind.
• Price discovery. They offer real-time price discovery. Buyers and sellers interact to determine an asset’s fair price, driven by supply and demand.
• Crowd wisdom. Prediction markets harness the power of the hive mind. Participants are rewarded for being right, not for being loud or popular, and traders capitalize quickly when markets are mispriced.
• Transparent probabilities. A price of $0.70 clearly indicates a 70% chance of something happening. That’s easier to understand than betting odds or expert predictions.
• Flexibility and risk control. You can sell a contract before the event has occurred, which helps you manage your risk. This gives you a great deal of flexibility, and the terms are often much better than cashing out an open sports bet.
• Lower house edge. The fees are often lower than the vigorish that sportsbooks charge. This leaves you with a better expected value than a traditional sportsbook.
• Broad access. Prediction markets are currently available nationwide under federal regulation. The best NFL prediction sites are especially popular in states that haven’t legalized sports betting.
• Wider range of events. Prediction sites cover events that sportsbooks can’t offer – elections, economic data, corporate decisions, and so on.

Drawbacks:

• Regulatory uncertainty. Some states are pushing back against prediction markets, arguing that they’re offering unlicensed sports betting. Markets can also be paused or delisted due to regulatory pressure, which creates uncertainty.
• Liquidity issues. Many markets suffer from low trading volumes. Poor liquidity can make it hard to stake as much as you’d like. It can also make it difficult to exit a position without the price moving against you.
• Ethical concerns. Some critics have raised ethical concerns about profiting from serious events like elections, wars, or pandemics.
• Susceptible to manipulation. In smaller markets, well-funded traders can profit by temporarily moving prices. This manipulation is often seen in crypto trading, where whales can pump and dump coins.
• Fewer sports markets. The best sports betting prediction sites cover spreads, totals, the game result, and futures. You won’t find many props, and you can’t build parlays. They tend to cover fewer sports and leagues than online sportsbooks too.

Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US?

Yes, prediction markets are legal in the US. They are treated as event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act.

These contracts have been around for more than 100 years. They’re regulated at a federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Historically, most prediction markets focused on commodities or stocks. For example: will the price of oil hit $80 per barrel in the next three months? Traders can buy these contracts when they want to speculate on the price of any financial instrument.

The entrepreneurs behind Kalshi spotted a gap in the market. They realized that any event, from a football game to a presidential election, could be bought and sold in the same way.

All they needed to do was gain CFTC approval. The CFTC approved Kalshi in 2020, but the site really found fame in the build-up to the 2024 presidential election.

Kalshi offered regulated prediction markets on the election winner, and it gained a great deal of publicity. The app then quickly rolled out sports prediction markets. Rivals then followed suit in a bid to capitalize on this trend.

Federal Oversight & the CFTC

Prediction markets are treated as financial derivatives. That means they fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, a federal agency that oversees futures contracts.

The prediction market sites don’t need to obtain licenses from gambling commissions in each state. They’re not treated as gambling sites, as you aren’t betting against the house. Instead, they simply allow users to trade futures contracts.

If a site is registered with the CFTC, it can legally sell event contracts nationwide. Sites like Kalshi and DraftKings Predictions are regulated by the CFTC, and they comply with federal law. That allows them to operate on a nationwide basis.

The Role of Exemption Requests

The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) requires financial derivatives to serve one of two purposes:

• Hedge real economic risk.
• Offer price discovery for commodities or financial instruments.

That means prediction sites can offer markets on inflation prints, Fed interest rate decisions, commodity prices, and so on. These events affect business decisions and aid price discovery, and they can be used to hedge economic risk.

However, many prediction markets don’t serve either of those purposes. For example, futures contracts on sporting events and elections don’t really hedge economic risk or aid price discovery.

That’s where exemption requests come in. Congress knew that the CEA’s rigidity could be a problem, so it gave the CFTC the authority to grant exemptions for certain contracts.

The CFTC can allow sites to offer contracts on events, even if they don’t neatly fit into traditional futures law. They just need to serve a legitimate public interest or economic purpose, and they can’t undermine market integrity.

Regulators will focus on a few key points when considering whether to grant an exemption:

• Does the contract provide social or economic value? Or is it purely speculative, with no broader value?
• Is the outcome objectively verifiable?
• Is manipulation likely?
• Will the contract harm market integrity?

If the CFTC determines that there’s a public or economic interest, and it won’t harm market integrity, it will approve the contract. Prediction sites can then legally offer the contract.

Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket don’t ask for exemptions on every contract. They normally only ask for exemptions on contracts that:

• Push the boundaries of derivatives law.
• Are politically or socially sensitive.
• Are most likely to trigger a backlash.

State-by-State Considerations

Prediction sites argue that federal CFTC regulations preempt state gambling laws. When the CFTC authorizes a market, they’re confident that they can offer it on a nationwide basis.

However, some states are pushing back. They claim that prediction market sites are effectively offering sports betting, and they’re trying to block these sites. These are some of the recent developments:

• States including Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Montana, and Ohio have issued cease and desist letters to prediction sites. They describe prediction markets as “illegal gambling” and warn about consumer risks.
• Massachusetts has sued Kalshi, claiming that sports event contracts violate state gambling law. Regulators want to outlaw these contracts.
• Courts blocked Nevada and New Jersey from enforcing sports betting laws against Kalshi.
• However, a federal judge in Maryland rejected Kalshi’s attempt to shield its operations from state gambling laws. The judge ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act doesn’t necessarily preempt state sports betting regulation.
• Some Native American tribes, particularly in California, have also opposed prediction markets. They claim that these markets violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, which is supposed to give them exclusivity to regulate gaming on their lands.

The Maryland decision has paved the way for further state-level enforcement of prediction markets. This legal dispute could ultimately be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

In the meantime, Kalshi is continuing to offer prediction markets in all 50 states. Other sites haven’t been quite so bold. For example, DraftKings Predictions only launched in 38 states.

How This Differs from Licensed Sportsbooks

Licensed sportsbooks, online casinos, and poker rooms are required to follow strict regulations in each state. If they stick to the rules, they don’t face any major regulatory challenges.

The Future of Prediction Markets in the US

Prediction markets have soared in popularity over the past couple of years. Trading volumes surged to $44 billion in 2025, and analysts at Eilers & Krejcik expect them to hit $1 trillion annually by 2030. Regulatory battles could shape the industry’s future, but it will be difficult to halt the momentum of these sites.

Industry Split

Most analysts agree that liquidity will consolidate around a small number of dominant prediction sites.

We’ve seen a similar pattern in online sportsbooks and casinos, where FanDuel and DraftKings control the lion’s share of the market. That trend could be even more pronounced in prediction markets, as liquidity is so important.

Kalshi has first mover advantage, but it now faces a huge challenge from savvy operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Robinhood. DraftKings has already purchased Railbird Exchange, and we could see more mergers and acquisitions in the future.

University researchers and superforecasters will occupy a niche, but most liquidity will go to the commercial platforms. They will need to clear several regulatory hurdles, but the companies that survive the fierce battle for market share can look forward to a bright future.

What Traders Should Watch

Bettors should keep an eye on a few key topics:

• Regulatory announcements. Look out for high-profile court rulings on whether federal law preempts state gambling laws. Any guidance from the CFTC could also increase or restrict future offerings.
• Market access. Consider how prediction sites navigate state restrictions. Some may tweak their offerings in certain states as the legal situation unfolds.
• Product evolution. It will be interesting to see if prediction markets expand into props and parlays. That would increase their competition with online sportsbooks.
• Liquidity. Follow the money. Choose prediction sites with strong liquidity, as you’ll find it easier to open and exit positions on interesting markets.
• Public awareness. Look out for prediction prices popping up on mainstream sites and channels – news feeds, live sports games, search engines etc. That could drive awareness and boost liquidity.
• Election cycles. Prediction sites will enjoy a great deal of publicity in the run-up to the presidential election and the midterms.
• Crypto regulation. If crypto becomes more mainstream, decentralized prediction hubs could challenge sites like Kalshi and DraftKings Predictions.

Final Thoughts on the Best Prediction Market Apps

The best prediction market apps give you a different way to trade on sports, politics, economics, crypto, pop culture, and other real-world events. Instead of betting against a sportsbook, you’re buying and selling event contracts with prices that move based on market demand.

That makes prediction markets flexible, transparent, and useful for tracking public sentiment. You can buy “Yes” or “No,” sell before the event settles, and see how traders are pricing an outcome in real time.

Still, prediction apps are not risk-free. Fees, liquidity, market rules, state availability, and regulatory changes can all affect your experience. Sports prediction markets are especially worth watching, since they sit in a fast-moving gray area between trading, forecasting, and traditional sports betting.

If you’re comparing the best prediction market apps, start with the basics: available markets, ease of use, fees, liquidity, withdrawal options, and whether the platform is available in your state. Once you understand how contracts work, prediction markets can be a useful tool for trading on the events and storylines you already follow.