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- Kalshi prediction market traders pushed odds for a Tesla-SpaceX merger to 56% for early 2027.
- The contract surge followed a Barclays analyst note highlighting potential AI-driven vertical integration across Elon Musk’s companies.
Prediction market traders on Kalshi pushed the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger above 50% for early 2027 after a Barclays note outlined how such a deal could take shape.
The move matters because it shows merger speculation around Elon Musk’s companies spilling into a regulated U.S. prediction market, with contracts now implying a better-than-even chance of a deal being announced in the first months of 2027. The contract will be verified using news reports and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s EDGAR database.
Kalshi contract jumps after analyst note
According to the source, odds of a merger happening before March 2027 rose to 56% from 29% on Friday morning. Similar contracts tied to an integration before April and May also moved above 50%.
Kalshi’s market asks a direct question: “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?”
The rally followed a Wednesday note from Barclays analyst Dan Levy, who said the main appeal of a combination would not just be financial synergies. “Notably, while we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration,” Levy said, according to the source.
The report said Barclays expects a merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual general meeting, which must take place no later than Dec. 6, 2026.
Why traders are watching Musk’s companies
Tesla and SpaceX are both controlled by Elon Musk, and the source said Tesla this week showed off its long-delayed next-generation Roadster, which uses SpaceX technology to make the vehicle hover. A video demonstrating the car was recorded from SpaceX’s test site in Texas.
Musk also referenced growing ties between the companies on Tesla’s latest earnings call, saying there is “more and more overlap” between Tesla and SpaceX.
Barclays said the merger thesis could be framed as AI-driven vertical integration tying together Tesla’s Robotaxi and Optimus efforts with SpaceX’s Grok and Macrohard. Levy also said the Terafab semiconductor project, which relies on Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, could be a key driver.
Separately, Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of the company’s next scheduled earnings release in early November and raised its 12-month price target by 20% to $275.
For prediction market traders, the next concrete event to watch is whether any formal merger proposal or announcement emerges before Tesla’s annual general meeting deadline in December 2026.
Source: As reported by news.google.com.
