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- Polymarket traders assigned a 27% probability of bitcoin reaching $100,000 before 2027, favoring a 64% chance of $90,000.
- Kalshi and Polymarket longer-term contracts reflect higher optimism, pricing a 70% probability of bitcoin hitting $100,000 by late 2027.
Polymarket traders gave bitcoin a 27% chance of reaching $100,000 before 2027 as of Oct. 13, according to market pricing highlighted by Crypto News.
That snapshot matters because prediction markets are showing a much stronger probability for lower bitcoin price targets than for a six-figure move in the near term. The contracts cited in the report measure whether BTC touches a price before expiration, not where it finishes the period.
In Polymarket’s 2026 bitcoin market, which the report said had about $75.1 million in trading volume, traders assigned a 64% chance of bitcoin hitting $90,000 before year-end and 43% odds of touching $95,000. The chances dropped to 12% for $110,000 and 7% for $120,000.
The same market also showed meaningful downside probabilities. Traders priced a 37% chance of bitcoin touching $70,000 before 2027, with 23% odds for $65,000 and 15% for $60,000.
Short-term bitcoin markets also favor lower targets
In Polymarket’s October market, the report said trading volume was roughly $6.3 million. That market assigned bitcoin an 80% probability of touching $85,000 before November, 50% for $87,500, 32% for $90,000, and 10% for $95,000.
The article cited a Polymarket BTC reference price of $83,416 at 6:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 13, with the contract expiring on Oct. 31, 2026. It also listed only a 2% chance of bitcoin touching $100,000 before November.
On Kalshi, the October bitcoin forecast stood at $87,000, down about $2,970 from an earlier reading in the report. Kalshi’s October event gave bitcoin a 49% chance of exceeding $87,500, 35% odds of topping $90,000, and 22% odds of moving above $92,500.
Longer-dated contracts show higher confidence in $100K
The source also pointed to longer-range milestone markets that were more optimistic about bitcoin eventually reaching six figures. On Polymarket, traders assigned a 48% probability that bitcoin hits $100,000 by March 31, 2027, 58% by June 2027, and 70% by Dec. 31, 2027.
Kalshi’s separate year-end bitcoin market had recorded more than $41.3 million in volume and projected $83,554, according to the report. The article said the displayed settlement bracket probabilities included 14% for a year-end finish between $80,000 and $84,999.99 and 12.7% for a finish between $85,000 and $89,999.99.
For prediction-market readers, the main takeaway is that traders were pricing a path toward higher bitcoin levels over time, while still treating $100,000 as a relatively low-probability near-term outcome. As the source noted, those probabilities can change quickly as new information reaches the market.
Source: As reported by cryptonews.net.
