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- An October 2026 political analysis revealed that Tim Walz led Polymarket with $88.7 million in trading volume while Donald Trump led Kalshi with $48.6 million, highlighting how political trading volume remains heavily concentrated around key national figures rather than serving as a direct measure of electoral popularity.
- In 2026 midterm race activity, California’s gubernatorial contest dominated Polymarket with $41.7 million in volume, while Texas’s Senate race led Kalshi with $21.8 million, driven largely by $13.1 million in trading centered on Ken Paxton.
Tim Walz on Polymarket and Donald Trump on Kalshi top a new ranking of U.S. politicians by prediction market trading volume, according to an analysis of open politics markets published Oct. 15.
The ranking matters because it offers a snapshot of where money is moving across the two biggest political prediction market platforms tracked in the report, Polymarket and Kalshi. The source also stresses that trading volume is not a measure of popularity or electoral strength. It reflects how much money has moved through markets that name a politician.
On Polymarket, the report says total volume across every open politics market is about $2.18 billion. Walz ranks first among U.S. politicians at $88,671,963 across 8 markets, followed by Trump at $85,526,621 across 547 markets.
On Kalshi, total volume across all open politics markets is roughly $573.1 million. Trump leads that platform’s politician list with $48,574,597 across 878 markets.
California governor, Texas Senate lead 2026 race activity
The report also breaks out volume in 2026 governor and Senate contests, highlighting where traders are most active in the midterm cycle.
On Polymarket, total volume across 194 candidate markets in 71 governor and Senate races stands at $60.72 million. The highest-volume race is California governor at $41,670,112. Among individual California governor candidate markets on that platform, Tom Steyer leads with $4.81 million in volume.
Kalshi shows even more midterm activity overall, with roughly $90.9 million traded across candidate and party markets in 71 races. The highest-volume race there is the Texas Senate contest at $21,844,900. According to the report, Ken Paxton accounts for $13.06 million of that total.
What the rankings do and do not show
The article says its rankings are based on two data pulls from each platform taken a few days apart in October 2026. It does not provide direct links to the underlying snapshots or specify the exact pull dates.
It also notes the politician rankings are not a clean proxy for public support. A candidate can generate heavy volume because they appear in many markets, attract speculative trading, or are central to multiple political scenarios.
Across both platforms, the report says the combined top-40 politician list totals $2065.8 million in volume. In that table, combined volume attributed to Democrats is $1018.9 million, compared with $872.3 million for Republicans.
For bettors and prediction market watchers, the immediate takeaway is straightforward: political trading remains concentrated around a small number of national figures and a handful of marquee 2026 races, with California governor and Texas Senate drawing the largest race-level interest on the two platforms covered.
Source: As reported by news.google.com.
