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In April 2025, Daniel Negreanu set the online poker world alight when he accused high-stakes poker of being a “mirage.”
Negreanu, who doesn’t play any high-stakes poker outside of WSOP and the PokerGO Studio, argued that virtually every single player who plays the super-high roller circuits is being bought in.
Being poker’s most influential voice, people online have mimicked these comments ever since.
“Most every pro who is playing this kind of high roller schedule is selling action and/or swapping, so if you see a pro who played them all cash for $7 million in a year, likely losing $3-5 million, they didn’t actually lose that much if anything at all.
“If they only sell at markup, they can lose $3-5 million, but still show a profit personally.
“Most high rollers have turbo-like structures which increase variance and lower the pros’ ROI significantly, as a lot of these events become a folding battle, focusing on ICM and laddering pay jumps while flipping some coins along the way.
“If you want to make a good living as a tournament player, your best bet is to focus on low- to mid-stakes buy-in tourneys.
“Low defined as:
$1500 and below
“Mid-stakes:
$2k-$10k
“What you envision at the highest stakes is mostly a mirage.
“No one is playing these rates to have an ROI over $5 million in any given year. Profitable years like that will happen, but they are anomalies rather than the norm.”
Spanish pro Adrián Mateos, who plays virtually every single high roller on Earth, immediately refuted Negreanu in the comment section, saying there are actually a lot of players who have a huge percentage of themselves in those fields. He told Negreanu that trying “to simplify and generalize every player situation is not accurate.”
Last week, in an interview with Winamax, Mateos revisited the debate and doubled down on his past comments.
“It’s simple. Negreanu’s comments come from a point of view where he doesn’t really know [the circuit],” Mateos said.
“Negreanu is obviously poker’s most famous ambassador, the most important one and possibly the person who has done the most for this game. He’s a poker legend, but on this statement he’s simply wrong.”
Mateos went on to state that Negreanu’s opinions are wrong simply because he doesn’t know how the high-stakes ecosystem works outside of the US.
“He doesn’t travel outside the US, and he doesn’t know the numbers or how the circuit works.
“Poker is a very pyramid-shaped game, especially at high stakes, where most of the money goes towards the top of the pyramid. That’s why my main goal has always been to get as high up that pyramid as possible, because that’s where the most money is.
“Poker is very exponential. If you’re among the elite, the profits are much higher than they are for an average regular.”
Stephen Chidwick is one of those that many consider to be in poker’s elite. Chidwick, who is number two on poker’s all-time money list with just under $80 million in career live tournament earnings, did a Reddit AMA at the beginning of the year, claiming he’s “only” $5-10 million in profit throughout his career.
Mateos claims that his figures are accurate.
“As for Chidwick, I think it’s a pretty interesting discussion, and it was good that he was honest about the numbers. I do think those numbers are accurate.
“Among poker players, when we travel to the biggest tournaments and compete at the highest levels, ROI varies depending on the player.
“There aren’t many players with an ROI above 5%, but I think the elite can achieve ROIs of 20–30%.”
Mateos is coming off a successful stop at Triton Jeju, where he finished in third place in the $150,000 Anniversary Special for $1.3 million. The Spaniard also had three other cashes, including a $512,000 score in the $200,000 Triton Invitational.
