Share 
Bonus TL;DR
- Jack Lowden’s James Bond casting odds reached 61% on Kalshi after Gary Oldman hinted he was chosen.
- Amazon MGM Studios has not confirmed a decision, leaving the prediction market trading purely on public rumors.
Jack Lowden moved to the top of Kalshi’s market for the next James Bond on Sept. 8, with his odds rising to 61% after actor Gary Oldman said in a Canadian TV interview that the role has already been cast but not announced.
The move matters because it shows how quickly entertainment rumors and public comments can shift pricing on a live U.S.-accessible prediction market. Kalshi now lists Lowden well ahead of Callum Turner and Jack Barton, who were each priced at 20%.
Oldman comments reshaped the market
According to the source report, Oldman said on Canadian television that the next Bond had already been selected, even though Amazon MGM Studios has not made a public announcement.
“We’re going to find out pretty soon, aren’t we? Because they have picked him. They have made their choice, but they have not announced it yet,” Oldman said.
He also said Lowden had been rumored to be on the shortlist and added that his “fingers are crossed for Jack.”
Those remarks appear to have triggered a fresh move in the Kalshi market. Lowden’s 61% price gave him a 41-point edge over Turner and Barton, both at 20%. The report noted that Lowden, Turner and Barton have each led the market at different points during the Bond speculation cycle.
No studio confirmation yet
Despite the market move, there is still no official confirmation from the studio. The source report said Amazon MGM Studios has not announced the next Bond actor and declined to comment on Oldman’s remarks.
That leaves the Kalshi contract trading on public comments and industry chatter rather than a verified studio decision. Other actors mentioned in connection with the role include Jacob Elordi, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Harris Dickinson, Louis Partridge and Tom Francis.
The report also cited comments from Richard Osman, who said he had heard Lowden’s name from someone claiming to know who the next Bond would be.
For prediction market watchers, the next development to track is straightforward: whether Amazon MGM Studios confirms the casting and whether Kalshi prices move again before any official announcement.
Source: As reported by Danny Gallagher.
