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- Recent prediction market pricing on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket aligns with public polling in the Arizona governor’s race, heavily favoring incumbent Katie Hobbs over challenger Andy Biggs as early voting approaches.
- The active political trading continues despite an ongoing legal battle, as Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes pursues an appeal after a federal judge temporarily blocked the state’s attempt to prosecute Kalshi for offering election contracts.
Gov. Katie Hobbs is the clear favorite over Rep. Andy Biggs in Arizona’s governor race, with both recent public polls and Kalshi market pricing pointing the same way.
That matters for bettors and industry watchers because the race offers a high-profile test of how election prediction markets compare with traditional polling, even as Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes continues a legal challenge to Kalshi’s election contracts. Early voting in Arizona begins Oct. 7.
As of Sept. 29, a Kalshi “yes” contract on a Republican win in the governor’s race was trading at 13 cents, according to Cronkite News. That implied traders saw Biggs as a long shot, while Kalshi and Polymarket were both pricing Hobbs at about an 87% chance to win a second term.
Cronkite News also reviewed five recent public polls, all of which showed Hobbs ahead. Those surveys ranged from a statistical tie to a 15-point Hobbs lead.
Polls and markets are measuring different things
The source story cited experts who said polling and prediction markets should not be treated as identical signals.
University of Iowa economist Thomas Rietz told Cronkite News that Kalshi is “predicting the probability of winning, not anything to do with the vote shares.” Pollster Mike Noble said polling is a snapshot of current sentiment and can be heavily affected by turnout assumptions in a midterm-style electorate.
Among the surveys cited, a Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted Aug. 10-13 showed Hobbs leading by 13 points among likely voters, with 12% undecided. A HighGround survey from mid-August showed Hobbs ahead by 15 points.
But Cronkite News noted that none of the five polls it reviewed were conducted after Aug. 19. Since then, the Biggs campaign announced a $1.75 million ad buy coordinated with the Arizona Republican Party.
Republican strategist Paul Bentz compared the split between polls and market pricing to the difference between a point spread and a moneyline. He told the outlet Biggs would “need a miracle” to fully erase the gap, though Noble said the race could still tighten into single digits.
Legal fight over election contracts is still unresolved
The market activity is unfolding while Kalshi remains in a court fight with Arizona regulators.
In March, Mayes filed a 20-count criminal complaint against Kalshi and described the platform as an “illegal gambling operation,” citing an Arizona law that bans election wagering. A federal judge has blocked enforcement of that action while the case proceeds, and Mayes has appealed.
Kalshi has argued that its election contracts are federally regulated financial products, not gambling.
For now, the next concrete date in the race is Oct. 7, when early voting begins. Another key thing to watch is whether fresh polling conducted after the late-summer ad push changes the gap between Hobbs’ standing in surveys and her pricing in prediction markets.
Source: As reported by Noah Flug.
