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- Kalshi partnered with The Weather Co. to improve settlement data and display real-time weather probabilities on weather.com.
- The Weather Co. will use quality-control screening to prevent data tampering on Kalshi’s weather prediction markets.
Kalshi has partnered with The Weather Co. in a deal that will both support settlement data for Kalshi’s weather contracts and bring the platform’s real-time weather probabilities to some users of weather.com and its mobile app.
The partnership, announced Thursday and first reported by The Spokesman-Review, expands the reach of one of the biggest U.S.-focused prediction market operators into a mainstream consumer weather product. It also comes as Kalshi says trading in its weather and climate category is up 500% year over year and tracking toward $1.1 billion on an annualized basis.
Weather data and distribution both expand in the deal
According to the report, The Weather Co. will bolster the data used to settle contracts in Kalshi’s weather and climate prediction markets. The company also plans to add Kalshi’s real-time weather probabilities for some users of weather.com and its app, though the article did not say when the integration will go live or which users will see it.
Kalshi head of partnerships Will Brackett said market-implied probabilities can serve as an additional signal for understanding weather. He also said users such as farmers are using Kalshi to buy hedges tied to heat-wave thresholds, while small businesses see the platform as a simpler way to offset weather risk than traditional derivatives or insurance products.
The article noted that weather betting has grown quickly on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Sports still accounted for roughly half of Kalshi’s trading volume over the past year, according to data analyzed by DeFi Rate, but the weather category is becoming a larger part of the platform’s business.
Settlement integrity remains a key issue for weather contracts
The report also highlighted a core challenge for weather-linked markets: confidence in the official measurements used to settle contracts.
A suspected tampering incident earlier this year at a weather station at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle airport underscored that risk. According to the article, the case was referred to police and prosecutors, and Météo-France said the investigation remains ongoing.
To address those concerns, The Weather Co. said observations used for settlement will pass through its own quality-control system before being used on Kalshi contracts. Vice president of meteorology James Belanger said the company screens readings to make sure they pass a “meteorological smell test.”
The system compares observations with nearby stations and weather model analysis to filter out physically implausible values, according to the report. The Weather Co. said its network ingests government observations as well as readings from more than 400,000 personal weather stations.
Dartmouth economist Eric Zitzewitz told the publication that shorter-term weather contracts could help build liquidity and public interest for longer-term climate prediction markets as the category develops.
Source: As reported by Joe Wertz.
