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Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded prediction markets far beyond politics, with trading volume rising from less than $5 billion a month in mid-2025 to nearly $24 billion in April 2026.
That growth matters because the two platforms, once best known for election-related trading, are now offering markets tied to entertainment, sports, and other niche events, broadening the audience for a product that sits close to gambling and continues to draw regulatory and consumer-protection questions.
The observer reported that $3.5 billion was wagered on the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, a period the article described as a breakout moment for modern prediction markets. Since then, the range of contracts has widened sharply.
Examples cited in the report include Kalshi markets on the winner of Love Island, the Rotten Tomatoes score for Pinocchio Unstrung, and first-week sales for Charli XCX’s new album. The article also said Kalshi found three times as many women bet on Taylor Swift’s wedding than on other markets after her engagement to Travis Kelce.
Sports and entertainment are driving activity
Sports-related contracts appear to be a major part of that expansion. Polymarket and Kalshi handled $6.2 billion in trades on who would win the football World Cup final.
The article said Polymarket’s second-biggest World Cup trade was on whether Cristiano Ronaldo would cry. It also reported that the World Cup accounts for nearly half of the 200 highest-volume markets in Kalshi’s history.
The companies’ scale has grown with that activity, with Kalshi and Polymarket collectively valued at more than $30 billion.
The report also pointed to a demographic shift that operators may be chasing. A Morning Consult study found prediction market users are disproportionately male and under 45, while entertainment-linked markets may help platforms reach beyond that base.
Regulatory and integrity questions remain
The same expansion is also raising concerns about how these products should be treated. The Observer said critics have warned that prediction markets could gamify public life, increase addiction risks, and create more opportunities for insider trading.
Those concerns are especially relevant as markets move into areas where participants may have non-public information or where outcomes are more culturally pervasive than traditional political events.
For U.S. readers, the key unresolved issue is classification. The article described Kalshi as the first federally regulated prediction market in the U.S., but noted that both Kalshi and Polymarket are unavailable in the UK because they would need to accept classification there as gambling platforms.
What comes next is likely to center on that divide: whether prediction markets continue to grow as a distinct financial-style product in the U.S., or face more pressure to be regulated more directly like betting.
