These contracts ask who will win an election or party primary and usually cover presidential races, Senate, House, gubernatorial and even international elections. You’re likely to find contract options for each candidate, such as “Will candidate A win the upcoming election?”
Political Prediction Markets: How They Work & Where to Trade
As the name suggests, political prediction markets let you trade on what you think the outcome of a real-world political event will be. While not all platforms support this prediction market, you may be able to trade on topics such as which candidate will win a presidential election or which party will control Congress.
If you’ve never traded prediction markets before, the system works similarly regardless of the category: you buy and sell contracts that hold “Yes” or “No” positions regarding an upcoming event. Contracts always cost between $0.01 and $0.99 and, once the event settles and the result is known, you’ll win $1 for each correct contract you had. Read our prediction markets trading guide where we explain these mechanics in more detail.
On this page, we’ll specifically focus on political prediction markets and explain the types of political events you can trade on, what impacts contract prices, how events come to a resolution, and the risks involved.
What Political Prediction Markets Are
The contracts in political prediction markets cover a variety of topics, all related to the outcome of local or global political events. For instance, contracts may cover who will run in the next presidential election, whether specific laws will pass by a set date, or even the outcome of a legislative or confirmation vote.
Contract prices change as traders buy and sell positions, indicating the market’s implied probability of an outcome. You can look at the contract price as a general sentiment or probability that the specific result is correct: if a “Yes” contract is trading at $0.87, it means the market currently believes there is roughly an 87% chance of that outcome.
Types of Political Prediction Markets
Depending on the platform and the political cycle, you may find event contracts that address topics ranging from individual candidates and swing states to congressional control and legislation. Here are some of the most common political prediction markets available:
Election Winner and Primary Markets
Vote Share and Electoral College Markets
While the most common market considers the winner, there are also market categories that operate on a more/less basis. These markets question how many votes, electoral votes, or states a candidate or party will secure, including contracts specifically about swing states. As an example, you may find contracts asking whether a presidential candidate will receive more than 300 Electoral College votes.
Confirmation and Appointment Markets
Government appointments and confirmation votes are also common appearances on prediction market platforms. In these markets, the platform may ask whether someone will be nominated for a position, confirmed by the Senate by a specific date, or receive a set number of votes.
Policy and Legislative Markets
Unlike previous market types, policy and legislative markets are dedicated to what governments do on a day-to-day basis. Which policies will pass by a specific date, will a certain bill become law, or will the president back down on a previously supported measure.
What Moves Political Prediction Markets Prices
The contract prices will fluctuate from the moment the event opens until it’s settled. In the case of political prediction markets, many sources of information can lead market sentiment to change:
- Pooling data is one of the most common drivers for price changes in election markets
- Campaign events, such as debates, candidate withdrawals, endorsements, or specific speeches, can change traders’ expectations, impacting contract price
- Changes in legislative and government proceedings, like a bill moving to a vote or specific committee action that gets rescheduled, can affect contracts that have set timelines
The most important thing to remember is that prices will vary according to what traders believe will happen, and the more information you have access to, the better decisions you can make to either buy, hold, or sell your position before contract settlement.
How Political Prediction Markets Settle
Each event contract has a set of rules that establish the guidelines on how results will be evaluated, settled, and confirmed. These rules also state whether any specific conditions or timelines must be met, and what will happen if the specified settlement resolution doesn’t occur.
Most political prediction markets will use information provided by certified organizations, but the exact entity source varies by contract type. For instance, markets on an upcoming FED rate decision usually settle based on the FOMC’s statement published after its meeting. International geopolitical markets may depend on information published by the official national government organization.
The best option is always to read the contract terms before trading so you understand what needs to happen for the contract to settle in your favor.
Where to Trade Political Prediction Markets
Several prediction platforms support political prediction markets, but some offer broader coverage than others. Here’s how some of them compare:
Platform | Political Prediction Market Types | Promo Code (Click to Play Now) |
POTUS, midterms, global elections, primaries, congress, country-specific politics, geopolitics | ||
Elections, Senate, House of Representatives, party nominees | ||
Awards, reality TV, box office, music charts, TV rankings, video games | No offer currently | |
Entertainment, awards, movies, music, streaming and culture markets |
Some prediction market platforms operate under CFTC oversight, while others use different regulatory structures depending on jurisdiction. They are available only for users who are 18 years or older. Read the platforms terms and conditions and event contract rules before trading.
Risks Specific to Political Prediction Markets
Political prediction markets have been going through a tumultuous regulatory environment due to conflicts between federal regulators and state legislation. The CFTC treats qualifying event contracts as financial products while some state governments have strict laws against betting on politics, and consider that these products fall within that category.
Another point of concern is insider trading, with politicaly involved individuals being able to influence markets through leaks or access informatino that puts them at an advantage compared to the general public. The Senate has already forbidden senators from trading on politically-associated markers, which was a positive step towards a fairer market.
Due to the continuous changes in how political prediction markets are regulated, we reccomend that you always confirm if the option is available in platforms operating in your state.
Recurring Political Prediction Markets Events or Market Types
The political calendar is one of the main guides to what type of event contracts you can expect and when:
| Political Event | Usual Schedule | Common Political Prediction Markets |
|---|---|---|
| US Presidential Election | Every four years in November | Election winner, Electoral College votes, popular vote |
| Presidential Primaries | Every four years during the months before the presidential election | State primary winners, party nominees, delegate totals |
| US Midterm Elections | Near the midpoint of a president’s four-year term | House and Senate control, individual congressional races |
| House Elections | Every two years | Individual district winners, party control |
| Senate Elections | Every two years for circa one-third of seats | Individual races, party control, number of seats |
| Governatorial Elections | Varies by state | State election winners, party control |
You’ll also find other political markets that follow government activity rather than set calendars. Confirmation votes, major legislation, government appointments or other similar types of events may happen at any time.
Political Prediction Markets FAQ
You can trade on political prediction markets in multiple CFTC-regulated platforms, including Polymarket, OG Predictions, and Kalshi. The types of available political market types vary according to the platform and state you live in, so it’s always worthy to double check availability before registering.
There isn’t a simple nationwide “yes” or “no” answer, as state governments have their own specific laws on betting on politics that sometimes conflicts with the federally regulated prediction markets offerings. Pew Research Center has stated that at least 23 states have prohibited lection betting entirely while other nine forbade it in certain circumstances. Other states have no law about betting on elections.
Political event contracts can cover US and international election winners, party nominees, vote shares, and legislation or policy related activity. The types of contracts available tend to follow the political calendar. For instance, midterm elections related markets become more widely available every four years, closer to the event itself.
Prediction markets and pools analyze different things. While pools question a sample of people about their voting intentions, prediction market contract prices reflect what the collective group of traders expect to happen. While some research has shown that prediction markets can be useful forecasting tools, accuracy isn’t guaranteed and prices can change at any moment based on news.
The Iowa Electronic Markets, launched by the University of Iowa in 1988, is usually credited as the first modern political prediction market. It covered the 1988 US presidential race and was created with a focus on research and education, rather than profit.
Several entities have shared concerns about potential manipulation and election integrity, especially considering insider trading on policy or legislative markets. There are also concerns about how election prediction markets may contribute to misinformation or false claims of election results manipulation.
Prediction markets operate as trading exchanges where users buy and sell contracts among themselves based on the outcome of a future event. On the other hand, political betting sites usually operate under a sportsbook model, where the platform sets the odds and players place bets. The legality and regulatory oversight of both types of platforms is also different.
Some are, but not all. The US Senate adopted a rule in April 2026 that prohibits sitting senators, Senate offices and employees from trading on prediction markets, including event contracts related to elections and federal government actions. This step was taken to reduce insider trading and market manipulation, although it doesn’t restrict other governmental branches from trading.
