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- Prediction market Kalshi has launched an internal investigation into a series of highly lucrative, long-shot trades placed just hours before Katie Zacharia was publicly announced as President Donald Trump’s new White House press secretary.
- The suspiciously timed wagers, placed when Zacharia had only a 1% implied probability of securing the role, have reignited concerns over market integrity and the potential for insider trading on political event contracts, following a similar CFTC probe earlier this year involving a former White House teleprompter operator.
Kalshi is investigating three trades placed before Katie Zacharia was publicly named President Donald Trump’s new White House press secretary, after the small bets positioned users for outsized payouts.
The review matters because the winning positions were taken while Zacharia was listed at just 1% to get the role on Kalshi’s market, raising fresh questions about market integrity and whether any trader may have acted on advance knowledge. While much of the recent policy debate has centered on the boundaries between digital prediction market platforms, sportsbooks, and regulated online casino ecosystems, these types of political event contracts face unique compliance scrutiny over insider trading risks.
According to the source, one bet of $19 was placed around 10:43 p.m. Thursday and stands to pay $1,896. Two more bets of $74 and $80 were made at 1:41 p.m. Friday, before news of the appointment broke at about 2 p.m. ET. Those wagers are slated to return $3,689 and $4,023, respectively.
A Kalshi spokeswoman confirmed the company was taking a closer look at the trades. The Wall Street Journal first reported the investigation.
Trump confirmed Zacharia’s appointment Friday in a Truth Social post. In that announcement, he said, “I am confident that Katie will deliver strong results for our Country as the next White House Press Secretary.” He also said Zacharia would replace Karoline Leavitt.
Early trades draw scrutiny on a low-probability market
The scrutiny centers on timing as much as payout size. The source said the three bets were placed before Zacharia’s appointment made headlines, despite her having only a 1% chance of being named press secretary on the platform leading up to the news.
Zacharia previously served as a senior communications adviser for Truth Social and its parent, Trump Media & Technology Group. Earlier this year, she also served as a spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security.
The source does not say whether Kalshi has identified the accounts involved, suspended any users, or concluded that any rule was broken. It also does not say whether regulators are formally involved in this specific matter.
Probe follows earlier betting-related scrutiny
The latest review comes after another politically connected betting controversy tied to the White House. In July, White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez was fired after he made $100,000 in profits from bets on Trump’s speeches, according to the source.
Perez later reached a settlement agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in August.
For now, the immediate question is whether Kalshi’s internal review finds evidence that the Zacharia wagers were informed by nonpublic information or merely well-timed speculation. The company had not publicly announced any enforcement action in the matter based on the source material provided.
Source: As reported by news.google.com.
