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- A new Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that 60% of U.S. adults across party lines oppose using prediction markets to wager on elections, with similarly strong pushback against betting on military actions and government policy decisions.
- The public resistance arrives squarely in the middle of an escalating jurisdictional turf war, as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face intense scrutiny from state regulators who argue event contracts are gambling, while the CFTC asserts federal oversight.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 60% of Americans oppose using prediction markets to wager on election results, adding fresh political pressure as regulators and lawmakers debate how platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi should be governed in the U.S.
The survey matters because it suggests resistance to election-event contracts is not limited to one party. Reuters reported opposition crossed party lines, with 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans saying they oppose election betting through prediction markets.
The online poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 and had a margin of error of about two percentage points.
Opposition extends beyond elections
Reuters said respondents also pushed back on other political and national-security markets. 65% opposed betting on U.S. military actions, while 63% opposed wagers on government policy announcements or decisions.
Support for those markets was limited. Just 8% supported military-action markets, and 9% supported policy markets, according to the poll.
The survey also found strong agreement that elected officials and their staffs should stay out of the market. 93% of Democrats and 89% of Republicans said it was inappropriate for members of Congress or their staff to bet on political events.
That finding follows a move by the Senate in April to bar senators, staff and other officers from using prediction markets.
On the broader question of how these products are perceived, Reuters reported that three-quarters of respondents said wagering on real-world events through prediction markets is a form of gambling, while 8% disagreed. For sports-related prediction markets, 43% said they opposed them and 29% said they supported them.
Poll lands in middle of federal-state fight
The results arrive as the CFTC, state regulators and federal lawmakers continue to fight over whether prediction markets should be treated primarily as financial products or as gambling.
Reuters reported that the Trump administration is pursuing federal rules for the industry while states challenge that approach. The CFTC has asserted jurisdiction over prediction markets as financial products, while state regulators argue the products facilitate gambling and should fall under state gaming laws.
That dispute could become even more significant for operators including Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which offer markets on elections and other real-world events in addition to sports-related contracts.
Reuters also reported that Democratic lawmakers have introduced bills aimed at restricting the industry. The article did not specify timelines for those proposals. Legal experts cited by Reuters said the jurisdictional conflict could ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Polymarket and Kalshi have said they use safeguards against misconduct and work with authorities, including referring suspicious accounts. Reuters also noted that Polymarket has said more than 90% of visits to its platform are for viewing markets rather than trading.
Source: As reported by readwrite.com.
