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- Polymarket and Kalshi both rank Trump third for TIME’s Person of the Year, behind Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV.
- Both top market favorites have publicly clashed with Trump. This adds a political dimension to the race.
Polymarket and Kalshi currently rank Donald Trump third in their markets for TIME’s Person of the Year, behind Zohran Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV.
What makes this story notable is that both prediction markets are pointing to the same top two names in a high-profile public-event market. TIME is expected to announce its annual selection in the coming months, but the current trading order suggests bettors are focusing on figures who have also been prominent critics or political antagonists of Trump.
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Mamdani and Pope Leo lead on both markets
According to the source report, Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV are the top two choices on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Trump in third place on each platform. Trump has won TIME’s Person of the Year two times previously, but the current market pricing puts him behind two figures with whom he has publicly clashed.
The report says Trump previously called Mamdani a “communist,” though after a November meeting he struck a more conciliatory tone, saying, “I think you’re going to have, hopefully, a really great mayor — the better he does, the happier I am.” Mamdani later met Trump again in February and said he hoped to work with him on housing.
That thaw did not last. By April, Trump accused Mamdani of “destroying” New York through his tax policies. The report also notes that in June, the Trump administration’s border czar threatened to flood New York with ICE agents after the state passed sanctuary provisions.
Pope Leo’s criticism adds another political flashpoint
The other market favorite, Pope Leo XIV, has also been at odds with the administration. The report says the pope criticized Trump administration immigration policies as “inhumane” and also spoke against Trump’s threats regarding Iran.
In an April social media post, Leo wrote: “Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs.” Vice President JD Vance responded by warning the pope to “be careful” when speaking on theology, according to the report.
Trump, for his part, described the pope as “weak” on crime and “terrible” on foreign policy. The source report also says the Trump administration ended an $11 million federal contract with Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami in April.
What to watch before TIME makes its pick
The key near-term question for prediction market participants is whether Polymarket and Kalshi continue to move in tandem as TIME’s announcement gets closer. For now, both markets reflect the same headline position: Trump is in third place, while Mamdani and Pope Leo hold the top spots.
Source: As reported by news.google.com.
