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- Polymarket traders assign an 80% chance that OpenAI will hit a $1.5 trillion IPO valuation by 2027.
- The bullish sentiment is driven by $25 billion in annualized revenue and an $852 billion private funding valuation.
Polymarket traders are assigning an 80% chance that OpenAI will reach a $1.5 trillion valuation at its IPO by 2027, according to a market update published by KuCoin on Sept. 8.
That matters because the contract offers a real-time read on prediction market sentiment around one of the most closely watched potential public listings in U.S. markets. The same outcome was priced at 35% earlier this year, showing a sharp increase in trader confidence tied to OpenAI’s funding, revenue scale, and reported IPO preparations.
The KuCoin report said the relevant Polymarket contract had topped roughly $233,000 in trading volume as of September 2026. It also said related Polymarket contracts were pricing a 95% probability that OpenAI’s IPO would close above $1 trillion, assuming the listing happens within the 2027 window tracked by the market.
What appears to be driving the move
The prediction market’s repricing follows several milestones cited in the report. OpenAI raised capital in March 2026 at an $852 billion post-money valuation, giving traders a recent private-market benchmark well below, but not far from, the $1.5 trillion target.
KuCoin also said OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 8, 2026. A confidential filing does not mean an IPO is imminent, and the report did not say when OpenAI plans to go public beyond the 2027 window used in the contracts.
Another factor in the bullish pricing is revenue. The report said OpenAI is running at roughly $25 billion in annualized revenue from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise API contracts.
The valuation gap remains significant
Even with those signals, the KuCoin summary noted that OpenAI is still posting GAAP losses. At $25 billion in annualized revenue, a $1.5 trillion IPO valuation would imply a roughly 60x price-to-sales multiple.
That helps explain why the Polymarket contract is notable beyond the raw odds: traders appear to be betting not just on an IPO happening, but on public investors accepting a valuation far above recent private-market levels despite continued losses.
The report also pointed to OpenAI’s 2025 governance restructuring, which moved the company away from its capped-profit model toward a public benefit corporation. That shift could be relevant as the company moves through the steps needed for a public listing.
What comes next is straightforward but still uncertain: whether OpenAI makes its S-1 public, whether it confirms an IPO timeline, and whether prediction market pricing holds near current levels as those details emerge.
Source: As reported by kucoin.com.
