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Bonus TL;DR
- Traders on the Kalshi prediction market heavily favor Anthropic to launch its IPO before OpenAI, with recent odds giving Anthropic up to a 93% probability.
- This sharp shift in market sentiment is driven by Anthropic’s strong financial momentum, including reports that the company has turned profitable for a second consecutive quarter and is projecting a $65 billion revenue run rate.
Kalshi bettors are pricing Anthropic well ahead of OpenAI to be the first of the two AI companies to reach an IPO, according to a Sept. 14 report from 24/7 Wall St.
The report said Kalshi’s market showed 93% backing Anthropic to go public before OpenAI, while 11% backed OpenAI to go first. It also noted those figures do not have to add to 100. For prediction-market watchers, the move is notable because the same report said the two companies were tied in February and June.
What the Kalshi market is signaling
The market move puts a clear favorite on a high-profile private-company milestone, even though neither company’s IPO timing was stated in the report.
24/7 Wall St. said the market is effectively reflecting sentiment that Anthropic may be closer to public-market readiness than OpenAI. The article also raised a key limitation: prediction-market pricing is not the same thing as a confirmed corporate plan, and it does not settle whether either company will actually list soon.
That distinction matters for readers following prediction markets as news products. Kalshi can show where traders are leaning, but the underlying article questions how much weight that market should carry against the companies’ actual finances.
Financial figures in the background of the bet
The report compared the companies using several published financial figures. It said Anthropic is profitable and expected to post a second straight profitable quarter, citing the Financial Times. At the same time, it also said Anthropic lost $20.5 billion in 2025, up 138% from the prior year, citing press reports.
For revenue, the article said OpenAI had a $40 billion revenue run rate for 2026 as of the last report, while Anthropic’s was said to be $65 billion, up from $9 billion last year.
The piece also cited reporting from TWN on OpenAI’s first-quarter financials, saying OpenAI carried no debt and posted $46 million in capital spending in the latest quarter. It quoted that report as saying: “OpenAI carries no debt and reported just $46mn of capital spending last quarter. For a company this hungry for computing power, that lightness is exactly what should make IPO investors look harder.”
What to watch next
The report did not identify any filing date, listing venue, or stated IPO timetable for either Anthropic or OpenAI.
That leaves the next concrete milestone outside the prediction market itself: any company announcement, securities filing, or updated financial disclosure that shows whether Kalshi traders are correctly reading the race.
Source: As reported by Douglas A. McIntyre.
