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Bonus TL;DR
- Kalshi prediction market odds for the CLARITY Act becoming law by the end of 2026 fell to 25% ahead of a critical Sept. 15 Senate procedural vote that requires 60 votes to advance.
- While traders price a 94% chance that the Senate procedural vote occurs, expectations for final enactment remain low due to ongoing partisan disputes over stablecoin rules, DeFi protections, and bans on public officials holding crypto.
Kalshi’s market-implied odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law by Dec. 31, 2026 fell to 25% on Sept. 13, as the bill heads toward a Sept. 15 Senate procedural vote that requires 60 votes.
That drop matters because a separate Kalshi market still put the chance of a Senate vote before Oct. 1 at 94%, underscoring a key distinction for prediction-market traders: a Senate action is not the same thing as final passage or enactment.
More than $8 million has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract covering whether H.R. 3633, formerly known as the CLARITY Act, passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law by the end of 2026. The source report said the implied probability had fallen from 82% in February to 16% on Sept. 7 before rebounding to 25%.
Why the Sept. 15 Senate vote matters
The Senate action due on Sept. 15 is a motion to proceed, not a final vote on the legislation itself. Supporters need 60 favorable votes to overcome cloture and move the bill into formal debate.
That threshold is a challenge. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to join them if all Republicans vote yes.
The source report cited Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong saying he was “rather optimistic about obtaining 60 votes.” But other observers have turned more cautious. Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners lowered his estimate of the bill’s chances of passage from about 40% to 25%, while Galaxy Digital estimated the odds at 10% in August.
For prediction market users, that split helps explain why the market for a Senate vote can trade high while the enactment contract remains far lower.
What is still holding up the bill
The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. The bill is meant to create a federal framework for the U.S. crypto market.
Under the proposal described in the source report, the CFTC would get exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while the SEC would keep oversight of certain securities offerings and crypto exchange activity.
The remaining disputes are political and substantive. According to the source report, several Democrats including Kirsten Gillibrand want a binding ban on public officials holding crypto assets. Traditional banks have resisted compromise on stablecoin rewards, and lawmakers are still divided over protections for decentralized finance protocols and non-custodial software developers.
Even beyond Congress, the issue is moving. The source report said the SEC and CFTC are already advancing crypto-related work on their own, with the SEC under Paul Atkins dropping certain enforcement actions and outlining a taxonomy of crypto assets, while the CFTC works on issues involving leveraged exchanges and DeFi.
The next point for traders to watch is whether the Sept. 15 motion to proceed clears the Senate’s 60-vote hurdle. If it does, the bill would move into formal debate, but it still would not be law.
Source: As reported by news.google.com.
