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Bonus TL;DR
- Kalshi‘s Trump administration departure prediction market attracted over $8 million in wagers on 2026 official exits.
- Ric Grenell leads reported 2026 exit probabilities at 58%, followed by Susie Wiles at 42%.
Kalshi’s market on Trump administration departures has attracted more than $8 million in bets, according to an Oct. 20 report published by Yahoo Finance.
The contract asks which officials will leave their roles during 2026. Its reported probabilities describe broader trends across prediction markets regarding market expectations rather than confirmed personnel decisions, and a separate Pete Hegseth contract uses a different deadline.
Grenell Leads Reported Administration Exit Odds
The report by Rounak Jain identifies three officials with the leading probabilities in the Kalshi market:
- Ric Grenell, special presidential envoy for special missions: 58%.
- Susie Wiles: 42%.
- Amy Gleason, acting administrator of DOGE: 30%.
The contract’s wording concerns whether officials leave their roles this year, rather than explicitly asking who will depart next. The percentages should therefore not be presented as a ranking of who is certain to be the next departure.
The report follows the reported removal of Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary five days after her appointment. According to the source, Zacharia had replaced Karoline Leavitt, who left the administration in late August.
Hegseth Contract Extends Into February 2027
The report also cites a market assigning a 62% probability that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be out before Feb. 1, 2027.
That deadline extends beyond the year-end window in the broader administration-departure contract. The Hegseth figure is therefore a separate forecast, not another entry directly comparable with the 2026 percentages above.
All figures reflect the source’s reported snapshot rather than a live update of market prices.
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Source: As reported by Yahoo Finance.
