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The National Football League (NFL) has so far refrained from forming partnerships with prediction markets over concerns about the game’s integrity. Now, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has revealed that the league wants stronger regulations for the platforms, which he terms “potential partners.”
Goodell said this in a recent interview with CNBC: “So, we’re continuing to have conversations with them and talk to them about the things that we think they need to do to strengthen that so that they could be potential partners at some point in the future.”
Calling for tighter regulations
The NFL has thus far sent two letters to prediction market operators urging them to avoid offering “objectionable bets.” The first letter was sent in March. However, certain operators appeared to ignore it, with Kalshi and Polymarket self-certifying player participation contracts, which were already categorized as objectionable bets.
As such, the league sent a second follow-up letter on September 4, shortly before the start of the season. NFL Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel wrote, “It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges.”
The second letter appears to have gotten the message through to prediction market operators. Polymarket withdrew its self-certified contract one day later, while the player participation contracts on Kalshi were pulled from the CFTC’s website before Week 1 of the NFL season. Notably, this signals that prediction market operators are falling in line, a move in the right direction for any future potential partnerships with the league.
Additionally, the CFTC and NFL appear to have struck a working agreement long before the prediction market operators started complying with the league’s demands. Notably, in June, the CFTC proposed rulemaking changes that identified four categories that prediction markets should avoid, including player injuries, officiating outcomes, micro-bets, and pre-collegiate sports. The rulemaking changes also required prediction markets to consult leagues before certifying event contracts.
Interestingly, Novig is the only major prediction market not to breach the NFL’s demands on objectionable bets. CEO Jacob Fortinsky acknowledged the company’s “full agreement” with the NFL when he received the first letter. Notably, Novig is also the first prediction market to impose a legal trading age of at least 21, one of the specific requirements made by the NFL.
It’s about being right
Goodell is in no rush to partner with prediction markets. Notably, he says that being in the right is better than being first. “We don’t feel like we have to be first in this. We feel like we’re going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient,” he says.
Goodell also noted that there “are a lot of things going on” with prediction markets. Notably, the platforms are battling lawsuits and grappling with regulatory concerns across multiple states. For example, Kalshi has been sued by several states trying to enforce gambling laws. The platform has lost multiple cases, leaving it unable to offer sports contracts in Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Utah, and Washington.
To this end, Goodell reiterated his call for better regulation of these platforms, noting that “we’re looking for a lot of those things.” He also emphasized his stand to protect the game’s integrity. In the meantime, the commissioner noted that he is proud of the partnerships that the league has with sports betting platforms like DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel.
Prediction markets cashing in on the game
While partnerships with the NFL still remain uncertain, prediction markets are still spending big on ad campaigns to cash in on this football season. Polymarket has partnered with multiple elite athletes, including LeBron James, Eli Manning, and Derek Jeter. Novig also made headlines with its ad starring Sydney Sweeney. Additionally, Betr revived the Entourage crew in a three-and-a-half-minute ad, while Kalshi brought out Marshawn Lynch in its big football ad.
