These contracts track the highest or lowest temperature recorded at a specific location on a given day. Depending on the platform, you might see a simple Yes/No contract or a set of temperature brackets to choose from — for example, “What will the highest temperature be in Chicago today?” with outcomes like 78–79°F, 80–81°F, 82–83°F, and 84°F or above. These contracts typically settle within 24 hours of opening.
Weather Prediction Markets: Trade Temp, Rain & Hurricanes
As the name suggests, weather prediction markets let you take positions on measurable weather events. Contracts can cover a city’s daily high or low temperature, rainfall or snowfall totals, hurricane formation and landfall, and other meteorological outcomes.
Each market works like any other prediction market contract — you take a position on an outcome, and the price moves as trader sentiment shifts ahead of settlement. If you’re new to prediction market trading and want to learn the fundamentals of event contracts, pricing, settlement, and order types, read our Prediction Market Trading Guide.
In this guide, we’ll cover weather prediction markets specifically: the types of markets available, what moves their prices, how they settle, where to trade them, and the risks and recurring patterns unique to this category.
Top Weather Prediction Markets
1
Unlock Your Offer On Sign Up
Unlock Your Offer On Sign Up
Sign Up & Unlock Your Offer at FanDuel Predicts
Make Predictions on Real World Events Right in Your Phone
Trade on Sports to Culture, Financials, Crypto and More
Sign Up & Unlock Your Offer at FanDuel Predicts
Make Predictions on Real World Events Right in Your Phone
Trade on Sports to Culture, Financials, Crypto and More
2
$20 Bonus On First Deposit
$20 Bonus On First Deposit
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus
Live Trade with the Biggest Payouts at the Largest Prediction Market in the World
Use Bonus Code: BONUSCOM
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus
Live Trade with the Biggest Payouts at the Largest Prediction Market in the World
Use Bonus Code: BONUSCOM
3
Trade $10, Get $20 In Trading Bonus
Trade $10, Get $20 In Trading Bonus
America's #1 Sports Prediction Market
Same Sports Moments, Bigger Payouts
Choose from Straights, Player Props, Parlays & More
Use Exclusive Code: BONUSX
America's #1 Sports Prediction Market
Same Sports Moments, Bigger Payouts
Choose from Straights, Player Props, Parlays & More
Use Exclusive Code: BONUSX
4
Trade $10, Get $10 Sign Up, Deposit, and Trade with OG
Trade $10, Get $10 Sign Up, Deposit, and Trade with OG
Huge Range of CFTC-Approved Markets (Sports, Tech, and More)
Compete with Others & Climb the Leaderboards
No User Limiting on Trades
Huge Range of CFTC-Approved Markets (Sports, Tech, and More)
Compete with Others & Climb the Leaderboards
No User Limiting on Trades
5
Earn up to 1 BTC In CRO Rewards
Earn up to 1 BTC In CRO Rewards
Complete a Task in the Crypto.com App to Unlock up to 1 Bitcoin Worth of CRO Rewards
America’s All-In-One Trading Platform
Manage Your Crypto, Stocks, Predictions & Card Spend Seamlessly
Complete a Task in the Crypto.com App to Unlock up to 1 Bitcoin Worth of CRO Rewards
America’s All-In-One Trading Platform
Manage Your Crypto, Stocks, Predictions & Card Spend Seamlessly
6
Trade $5, Get $150 In Trading Bonuses
Trade $5, Get $150 In Trading Bonuses
Get $150 in Bonuses Paid Over 14 Days
DraftKings is Now Available Nationwide
Browse Markets like Sports, Crypto, Tech & More
Get $150 in Bonuses Paid Over 14 Days
DraftKings is Now Available Nationwide
Browse Markets like Sports, Crypto, Tech & More
Weather prediction markets turn measurable meteorological events into tradable event contracts, letting you take a position on what you believe will happen at a specific place and time.
Markets are posed as questions or affirmations covering topics like temperature, rain, snow, and hurricanes — for example, whether the daily high in New York City will reach 90°F today, how much snow will fall at a given location over a set window, or whether a hurricane will make landfall. Some platforms also offer range-based markets with several mutually exclusive outcomes, instead of a simple Yes/No call.
The focus here is strictly on weather and climate in the meteorological sense — daily, seasonal, and event-based outcomes — not on markets tied to climate policy or environmental legislation.
Types of Weather Markets
Weather event contracts typically specify a location, a measurement period, possible outcomes, and the official data source used for settlement. These are the most common weather prediction market types you’ll find on major platforms:
Daily High and Low Temperature Markets
Rainfall and Precipitation Markets
Precipitation markets ask how much rain will be officially recorded at a location during a set period, from a single day to a month or longer. Some platforms offer a simple above/below Yes/No contract — “Will Seattle record at least 0.25 inches of rain tomorrow?” — while others offer a range of mutually exclusive outcomes for “How much rain will fall in Seattle tomorrow?”
Snowfall Markets
Snowfall markets work the same way but track official snow totals instead of rain. They’re more common in winter and can cover a single storm, a day, or a longer stretch — for example, whether a city will record at least 4 inches of snow on a given day.
Hurricane Formation, Landfall, and Intensity Markets
Hurricane prediction market contracts cover whether a tropical system will form, reach a specific strength, or make landfall in a defined area. These markets are most active during the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 through November 30), though season-wide contracts often stay open for months. A hurricane market might ask whether a named Atlantic storm will strengthen into a hurricane, or whether a major hurricane will make landfall in Florida this season — and the rules will spell out exactly what counts as “major” and “landfall,” along with the geographic area and official settlement source.
What Moves Weather Prediction Market Prices
The biggest driver of weather prediction market prices is the forecast itself. In a temperature contract, the price shifts when updated forecasts raise or lower the expected daily high; rain, snow, and hurricane markets respond the same way as new information changes the odds of an outcome.
Pricing also moves on a predictable rhythm tied to the forecasting systems behind these markets. Numerical weather models — the GFS and ECMWF IFS in the US, the Met Office models in the UK, and ICON in Germany — publish new runs roughly every six hours, so traders get a fresh batch of information to act on as each contract’s deadline approaches. Forecast models can also disagree with each other, so it’s worth checking the settlement source directly rather than assuming every model agrees.
Hurricane market prices can move especially fast when a storm’s projected path or intensity shifts, since new observations can change whether a system is expected to form or make landfall at all.
As traders react to this steady stream of forecasts and observations, sentiment shifts, and contract prices follow.
How Weather Markets Settle
Weather markets settle according to the official observation, station, and report type named in the contract rules — not whatever your weather app happens to show. Rules can vary meaningfully even between markets on the same platform.
Kalshi, for example, settles most daily temperature contracts against the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report for the named location, typically published the following morning. Some hourly temperature contracts instead settle against The Weather Company’s station-level readings. For city- or station-specific contracts, that means a source like KNYC at Central Park for New York-related contracts or KMDW at Chicago Midway Airport for Chicago contracts.
Because forecasts and reports update throughout the day, rules may also specify which report version counts for settlement — often only the first official, non-preliminary report, with anything published afterward voided. Platforms are explicit that consumer weather apps such as AccuWeather, iOS Weather, and Google Weather are useful for following a forecast but don’t determine contract outcomes.
Settlement authority varies by platform, contract type, and location, so always check the specific market’s rules before trading.
Where to Trade Weather Prediction Markets
Weather prediction markets are available on most platforms, though coverage varies significantly. Kalshi weather markets are the most comprehensive of any regulated platform, covering temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, droughts, and more, and Polymarket runs a similarly deep lineup. Robinhood also offers weather contracts — filed under its “Climate” section — through a partnership with Kalshi, so its available markets largely mirror Kalshi’s own.
Other platforms treat weather as a smaller, secondary category. DraftKings Predictions has only recently added weather markets and is still building out its lineup, while OG and Crypto.com Predict fold weather into a broader climate category, including longer-term questions like whether the current year will be one of the hottest on record.
Here’s a snapshot of current weather and climate market coverage:
Platform | Weather Prediction Market Types | Promo Code (Click to Play Now) |
Temperature, precipitation, drought, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanoes, global weather/climate | ||
Weather folded into a broader climate category, with a simpler contract layout | ||
Daily and hourly temperature, heatwaves, hurricanes, snow, rain, natural disasters, climate change | No offer currently | |
Weather and climate markets, including hottest-year contracts | ||
Daily high/low temperature, rainfall, snowfall — offered through a Kalshi partnership, so coverage largely mirrors Kalshi's own lineup | No offer currently |
Available markets change as new contracts open and old ones settle, so it’s always worth checking the latest information directly on the platform.
How to Trade Weather Prediction Markets
One thing that sets weather markets apart from other prediction market categories is the fixed timing of forecast model updates. Major forecasting systems — including the GFS, ECMWF, NWS, UK Met Office, and ICON models — publish new runs four times a day, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC, with reports available shortly after.
That schedule gives traders a predictable, roughly six-hour rhythm of new information to react to, and it’s also why automated trading systems are common in this category: bots can scan open weather contracts and update estimated probabilities the moment a new model run lands, often faster than a manual trader can.
Still, it’s worth remembering that the forecast itself never decides the winning contract — settlement always follows the official rules for that specific market, not the latest model run.
Risks Specific to Weather Prediction Markets
Every prediction market carries the general risk of losing your full stake, but weather markets carry one risk that’s specific to this category: settlement-source mismatch.
Weather varies even within the same city, and different apps or services can show different numbers at the same moment. If you’re tracking a market’s likely outcome using a consumer app like Google Weather, iOS Weather, or AccuWeather, but the contract actually settles against an official source like the National Weather Service or a specific station’s report, your read on the market can be off — sometimes only slightly, but a difference of a single degree or a tenth of an inch of rain can be enough to flip a narrow bracket.
This is especially easy to miss on multi-outcome range markets, where the winning bracket can sit right on the line between two adjacent options. Always confirm which official source and station a market uses before trading it, rather than relying on whichever forecast happens to be open on your phone.
Recurring Weather Events or Market Types
Weather prediction markets follow the calendar. Certain market types become more common — and more heavily traded — at predictable points in the year, even though the specific contracts available at any given time depend on the platform and current conditions.
Winter months typically bring a wave of snowfall and freezing-temperature markets as storm systems move through. Spring shifts the focus toward rainfall and severe-weather contracts as storm tracks become more active. The clearest seasonal pattern is hurricane season: NOAA issues its initial Atlantic outlook in late May, the season itself runs from June 1 through November 30, and activity typically peaks in a stretch from mid-August through mid-October, with the statistical peak falling around September 10. Markets on storm formation, intensity, and landfall cluster heavily around this window, and NOAA’s mid-season outlook update in early August often triggers a fresh round of seasonal hurricane contracts. Summer months also bring heatwave and daily-high-temperature markets, while autumn tends to mix late-season hurricane activity with the first snowfall contracts of the year.
Because these are evergreen, recurring patterns rather than a fixed calendar of open markets, treat the table below as a guide to when each category tends to be active rather than a list of what’s currently trading:
| Period | Recurring Weather Pattern | Common Market Types |
|---|---|---|
| December–February | Winter weather | Snowfall totals, freezing temperatures, daily temperature ranges |
| March–May | Spring storms and changing temperatures | Rainfall, temperature, severe weather and tornado markets |
| Late May | NOAA's initial Atlantic hurricane outlook | Seasonal hurricane and named-storm totals |
| 1-Jun | Atlantic hurricane season begins | Hurricane formation, intensity, and landfall |
| June–August | Summer heat and early hurricane activity | Daily highs, heatwaves, temperature records, hurricanes |
| Early August | NOAA's updated hurricane outlook | Seasonal hurricane activity and storm totals |
| Mid-August–Mid-October | Most active Atlantic hurricane stretch | Storm formation, hurricane category, and landfall |
| Around September 10 | Statistical peak of Atlantic hurricane activity | Hurricane formation, intensity, and landfall |
| 30-Nov | Atlantic hurricane season ends | Final seasonal hurricane totals |
| September–November | Autumn temperature swings | Daily highs/lows, rainfall, and early snowfall |
Weather Prediction Markets FAQ
These markets let you trade event contracts based on measurable future weather events, like daily temperatures, rainfall, snowfall, hurricanes, heatwaves, and other natural events. You buy positions based on which outcome you believe will happen, and the event settles according to the source and conditions stated in the contract rules.
There isn’t a single prediction platform or weather model that’s consistently accurate for every location, timeframe, or type of weather. Prediction markets also don’t provide forecasting themselves — contract prices simply reflect what traders believe is likely to happen, based on the same forecasts and observations everyone else can see.
Kalshi settles most daily temperature contracts against the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report for the named location, usually published the following morning. Some hourly temperature contracts settle instead against The Weather Company’s station-level data. Either way, consumer weather apps aren’t used to decide the outcome — only the official source and station named in that specific contract’s rules.
Yes. Polymarket’s weather markets cover temperature, precipitation, hurricanes, drought, tornadoes, and other natural events. Kalshi focuses more on city-specific temperature and precipitation contracts, with some broader weather events included. Settlement rules also vary between the two, so always confirm how a specific platform resolves a market before trading it.
Not necessarily. Prediction markets combine the opinions and sentiment of many traders into a probability estimate, but that sentiment is still heavily dependent on the same meteorological forecasts and observations meteorologists use. That said, Bloomberg has reported that aggregated information from prediction market platforms may help improve weather forecasting in some cases.
The cities available for weather contracts on Kalshi change as new contracts are added and old ones settle. At the time of writing, Kalshi has offered weather-related event contracts for New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Dallas, and Denver, among other US locations. We recommend checking Kalshi directly for the latest list.
There’s a growing ecosystem of third-party tools that automate parts of weather prediction market trading, including Rainmaker, RainBot, WeatherBot.fi, and NowCast. These generally combine forecast data from models like GFS, ECMWF, and NWS with automated logic to place trades through a platform’s order book. Note that this Rainmaker is a weather-trading tool, distinct from the similarly named tool covered on our Prediction Market Tools hub — double-check you have the right one. None of these tools guarantee better predictions or returns, so review their security permissions, platform compatibility, and terms before connecting a wallet or account.
