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- Bernstein projects that annual trading volume in prediction markets will surge from an estimated $410 billion in 2026 to $10 trillion by 2035.
- Future growth will largely be driven by a shift toward financial-asset contracts—including cryptocurrencies, commodities, and corporate KPI markets—while sports-related contracts are projected to shrink from 61% of market activity to a minority 38% share by 2035.
Bernstein said prediction markets could reach $10 trillion in annual trading volume by 2035, up from an estimated $410 billion in 2026.
The forecast matters because it points to a much broader market than sports event contracts alone. Bernstein said future growth is likely to come from financial-asset contracts, new product types and deeper institutional participation, even as U.S. rules around sports prediction markets remain unsettled.
Total industry trading volume has already accelerated, according to the report, rising to about $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026 from roughly $50 billion in all of 2025. Bernstein said its $410 billion estimate for this year should be viewed as a floor rather than a ceiling.
In an earlier April forecast, Bernstein had projected prediction-market trading volume would reach $1 trillion in 2030 from $51 billion in 2025. Its latest outlook implies a compound annual growth rate of about 70% through 2035.
Bernstein sees the market shifting beyond sports
Bernstein said sports contracts are expected to make up a smaller share of prediction-market activity over time, falling to 38% in 2035 from 61% in 2025.
At the same time, contracts tied to financial assets including cryptocurrencies, stocks and commodities are projected to rise to 49% of activity in 2035 from 12% in 2025.
The report also said KPI markets could emerge, letting traders take positions on corporate indicators such as output, delivery performance and subscriber growth. Bernstein added that perpetual futures are expanding beyond cryptocurrencies into commodities and single-stock perpetual futures.
Recent platform data cited in the report points in the same direction. On Kalshi, cryptocurrency-related trading rose to about 20% of activity in August from less than 5% in January. Kalshi commodities trading climbed to about $590 million so far in 2026 from less than $2 million in all of 2025, including $410 million in August alone.
Kalshi and Robinhood point to broader adoption, but regulation remains unclear
Bernstein said Kalshi’s industry share has risen to about 60% from 35% a year earlier. Robinhood also reported fast growth in event contracts, saying revenue from that business increased tenfold to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told CNBC, “We’re already seeing other categories like crypto take up a disproportionately larger share.” He added, “Within a few years, sports will actually become a minority share.”
Even with that growth, Bernstein said the U.S. regulatory picture is still unresolved. The firm said court rulings are split on whether sports prediction markets should be treated as federally regulated derivatives or as gambling regulated at the state level.
Bernstein said clear regulatory frameworks may be difficult to achieve before 2027 or 2028, leaving a key question for operators and traders as the market expands.
Source: As reported by news.google.com.
