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- Gemini Space Station’s stock has plunged 80%, prompting takeover speculation that its U.S. regulatory licenses could attract buyers.
- Analysts suggest offshore platforms like Hyperliquid could acquire Gemini to secure regulated U.S. access for prediction markets and futures.
Gemini Space Station’s stock has fallen about 80% from its IPO price, reviving takeover speculation around the crypto platform and, in particular, the value of its regulated U.S. infrastructure for products such as perpetual futures and prediction markets.
That angle surfaced after ARK Invest director of digital assets research Lorenzo Valente said on X that Hyperliquid should acquire Gemini and use it as a regulated U.S. gateway for those markets. There is no indication a deal is being pursued, according to the source report, but the comments have renewed focus on whether Gemini’s licenses may now be worth more than its shrinking exchange business.
Why Gemini is drawing acquisition interest
Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, now has a market capitalization of about $753 million, down from roughly $4 billion at its peak. The source report said that decline has come alongside weakening operating metrics.
Second-quarter exchange revenue fell 38% year over year to $12.5 million. Spot trading volume dropped 66% to $3.8 billion, while assets on the platform declined to $8.4 billion from $18.2 billion.
Valente’s post framed Gemini less as a growth exchange and more as a strategic regulatory asset. He wrote that “Hyperliquid, the offshore perpetual-trading platform, should acquire Gemini and use it as a regulated U.S. gateway for perpetual futures and prediction markets.”
That matters because regulated market access in the U.S. can be difficult and time-consuming to build from scratch. For companies looking at prediction markets or other crypto-linked trading products, established licenses and approvals may carry more value than exchange market share alone.
Licenses appear to be the main asset in focus
The source report said a venture capital investor viewed Gemini’s core exchange technology as offering limited differentiation from rivals. By contrast, Gemini and its subsidiaries still hold regulatory licenses and approvals that competitors may find costly and slow to replicate.
That is not a new theme. In April, CoinDesk reported that prospective buyers were considering Gemini’s shuttered European and U.K. operations primarily for their regulatory licenses. According to the report, no deal emerged, in part because of differing views on valuation.
What happens next is unclear. There is no sign Hyperliquid is actively pursuing Gemini, and the report did not identify any current buyer process. For now, the key question is whether Gemini’s depressed valuation makes it a more realistic acquisition target for firms seeking a faster route into regulated U.S. trading infrastructure, including infrastructure that could support prediction-market products.
Source: As reported by cryptonews.net.
