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Genius Sports recently launched Prediction.com through Legend, the company’s media and technology unit. Prediction.com, launched following deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, allows users to view and compare equivalent event contracts and their prices across different prediction markets. Moreover, it has a proprietary tool that also lets users compare multi-leg combinations across different platforms. The tool also combines live sports data with real-time market prices so users can see how market probabilities change as events unfold.
A direct foothold in prediction markets
Prediction markets are a fast-growing segment of the sports betting industry. To put this into perspective, trading volumes across eight major prediction market platforms topped $3 billion in the first NFL Sunday alone. The platforms have become so prolific that major traditional sports betting operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and Underdog are launching their own prediction markets.
Prediction.com gives Genius Sports, a global leader in real-time sports data and technology, a direct foothold in the prediction markets industry. Genius Sports owns Legend, a digital sports and gaming media company, after acquiring it for $1.2 billion in May. Notably, Legend’s operations include a portfolio of leading sports brands that reach millions of fans.
It is Legend’s existing consumer reach and comparison technology that Prediction.com is building on. Notably, Genius Sports also already provides leading prediction market platforms with official sports data and integrity services, another crucial building block for Prediction.com.
For Genius Sports, prediction markets are a growth opportunity for Legend. To this end, Citizens recently cited prediction markets as an opportunity for the company to generate additional revenue and free cash flow from the acquisition of Legend. Indeed, Genius Sports already cited prediction markets and Legend’s early involvement in its full-year outlook after the release of the second-quarter results in August.
Prepared for possible market changes
Notably, the launch of Prediction.com comes amidst an escalating legal fight between prediction markets and state regulators. On the one hand, prediction markets insist that their event contracts fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal government under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On the other hand, state regulators claim that event contracts are just another form of sports betting, thus accusing prediction markets of operating illegal gambling operations. Interestingly, federal appeals courts are now split on the issue.
Nevertheless, Genius Sports CEO Mark Locke expects prediction markets to remain a part of the U.S. sports betting industry. Under the company’s current commercial arrangements, it projects that prediction market activity can match or exceed the revenue generated from sportsbooks on a comparable dollar basis. Notably, the company supplies services to Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, DraftKings, and market makers operating on exchanges.
However, Locke doesn’t expect the industry’s current structure to remain unchanged for much longer. To this end, just days before the launch of Prediction.com, Locke outlined a strategy designed to benefit the company regardless of how the legal fight unfolds. “If prediction-market customers do not stick, the activity returns to the sportsbooks we already supply. If customers do stick, Genius can continue to benefit,” Locke wrote.
