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Bonus TL;DR
- Kalshi recently authorized several new prediction market contracts tied directly to professional basketball star Steph Curry despite ongoing league objections.
- The controversial move demonstrates how market operators continue expanding their sports event offerings while generating billions in daily trading volume.
Kalshi has self-certified new Steph Curry and NBA-related prediction markets, according to a Sept. 25 report from Next.io’s Event Horizon, despite previous objections from major sports leagues to similar player- and team-transaction contracts.
The move matters because it shows Kalshi continuing to expand sports-linked event contracts even after the NBA and NFL have signaled discomfort with markets tied to player movement and other league-specific outcomes. The report said similar products have appeared before, including a LeBron James next-team market that the NBA argued should not exist.
New Curry markets extend a familiar dispute
The source report did not specify the exact structure of the new Steph Curry markets beyond saying they were tied to Curry and the NBA. But it framed the listing as part of Kalshi’s broader pattern of posting sports-related markets that leagues have challenged.
According to the report, leagues “do not seem to like” markets about player movement and team transactions. It also said Kalshi continues to certify and offer those products anyway.
That tension remains one of the clearest pressure points in the U.S. prediction market business. Sports leagues have raised concerns about what kinds of contracts should be allowed, while Kalshi has continued testing the boundaries of sports-adjacent offerings under its exchange model.
The same report said there could be a deal between the NBA and a prediction market before the start of the season, though it did not identify any parties or provide a timeline.
Broader prediction market developments
The Event Horizon briefing also included several other industry updates. It said New York Attorney General Letitia James and Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a lawsuit against QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, alleging the company operated an illegal gambling business in New York.
Elsewhere, the report said Kalshi is now geofencing California tribes’ lands, that Public has launched prediction markets, and that Kalshi’s random bonuses appear to have returned with an offer of up to $2,000.
The article also cited market-share and volume figures for Sept. 23, saying Kalshi handled $1.8 billion in volume that day. Of that total, 57.7% came from parlays, 21.1% from sports, and 17.6% from crypto markets, according to the report.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour was also quoted in the briefing saying, “And our message is, we want more guardrails, and I think this is what they should look like,” in comments to PBS.
What comes next is whether leagues, regulators, or courts push back further on these sports-linked contracts. Based on the Sept. 25 report, Kalshi is still listing them while the broader rules for prediction markets in the U.S. remain unsettled.
Source: As reported by Dustin Gouker.
