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Bonus TL;DR
- Prediction market odds for the CLARITY Act advanced, particularly on Polymarket, after Senate Republicans released a revised draft aimed at securing the 60 votes necessary to clear a crucial Monday procedural hurdle.
- The updated bill incorporates 126 changes requested by Democrats, including stronger conflict-of-interest rules and provisions allowing the Treasury to restrict stablecoin rewards if they threaten community bank deposits.
A key Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act was set for 2:15 p.m. ET Monday, with prediction markets moving higher after Republicans released a revised draft and former Rep. Tim Ryan saying the crypto bill can still reach the 60 votes needed to advance.
The vote matters because clearing that first hurdle would allow the Senate to move toward debating and amending the bill. If supporters fall short, the article says there would be little time left to revive CLARITY before the end of the year.
On Polymarket, the bill was priced at a 29% chance of becoming law in 2026, with $16.3 million traded. According to the source article, those odds rose from about 22% to 32% after Senate Republicans released their final draft Sunday, before easing slightly.
Ryan told Yahoo Finance, “I think we can get there,” and said Sens. Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks had shown a willingness to engage on the legislation. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning at least seven Democrats or independents would be needed if every Republican voted yes.
Revised draft aimed at winning Democratic support
The latest version of the bill included ethics and consumer-protection changes meant to attract more Democratic backing. According to the article, a senior Republican aide said Donald Trump accepted roughly 80% of an ethics compromise negotiated by Sen. Thom Tillis and Gallego.
The revised language would strengthen conflict-of-interest rules, give state attorneys general enforcement powers, and could require officials with significant crypto interests to divest or use a blind trust.
Republicans said their final draft incorporated 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats. Ryan also said, “I want to see CLARITY passed, while making sure we get the details right.”
For prediction market watchers, the significance is straightforward: traders appeared to respond to signs that the bill had improved its odds of getting through the Senate, even though passage remained far from certain.
Banks and crypto groups keep pressuring senators
The source article also said banks and crypto companies have been lobbying senators as the bill moves forward, with one major flashpoint being stablecoin rewards.
Community banks warned that those rewards could pull deposits away from traditional lenders. In response, the latest CLARITY draft would give the Treasury secretary authority to temporarily restrict stablecoin rewards if they trigger substantial deposit outflows from community banks.
Ryan said he remained optimistic the bill could still pass this year, but also warned that “The biggest risk is losing momentum.”
What happens next depends first on whether the Senate can reach the 60-vote threshold to end debate on the motion to proceed. The source article did not report the outcome of that vote.
Source: As reported by finance.yahoo.com.
