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- An Urban Institute analysis shows that over $600 million was spent on NFL-related contracts on Polymarket’s global platform during the 2025 football season, driven by nearly 119,000 new trading wallets.
- This rapid growth has sparked intense regulatory and tax friction, as state officials warn that prediction markets bypass state consumer protection laws and threaten millions in tax revenues typically captured by licensed sportsbooks.
Prediction markets are capturing a larger share of football-season betting activity, with Urban Institute analysis estimating more than $600 million was spent on NFL-related markets on Polymarket during the 2025 season.
The finding matters because prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks are regulated differently in the U.S., even as they may compete for the same bettors during the busiest part of the sports calendar. Urban said that could affect both consumer protections and state tax revenue tied to licensed sportsbook wagering.
Urban’s analysis, based on a dataset reconstructed from Polymarket blockchain records by Pat Akey and others, said spending on NFL events on Polymarket’s global platform ran from preseason kickoff in late July 2025 through Super Bowl LX in February 2026. The group said transaction volume rose through the season, from $12 million during the first week of the regular season in September 2025 to $44 million during Thanksgiving week.
The report also said nearly 119,000 new wallets traded on NFL markets for the first time during the 2025 season, with new-wallet activity peaking at more than 10,000 during Super Bowl week.
Why the growth is drawing scrutiny
The American Gaming Association estimated roughly $30 billion would be wagered on the NFL through legal U.S. sportsbooks last season. Urban argued prediction markets are expanding total access to sports betting beyond what state-regulated sportsbooks capture, especially because many states already require consumer protections for sportsbook customers.
By contrast, the article said prediction markets are largely exempt from those state-by-state sportsbook rules because they are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as financial instruments. Urban also said its Polymarket figures likely understate NFL-related activity because the totals include only international Polymarket users and Americans who masked their locations with VPNs.
Early returns for the 2026 season, according to the article, show rising usage on both Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S. platform. The source also cited broader participation trends, saying that as of April 2026, more than a quarter of Americans had a sports betting account, including more than half of men under 50, while Urban research found 11% of U.S. adults had bet on sports in the past year.
Tax and regulatory questions are next
Urban said the shift could have direct consequences for state finances. In New York, online sportsbooks generated $1.3 billion in state tax collections in fiscal year 2026. Using a hypothetical example, Urban estimated that if 1% of New York sportsbook users moved to prediction markets, the state would lose about $13 million in tax revenue.
The regulatory fight is already active. The article noted that a bipartisan coalition of 44 state attorneys general filed a formal comment with the CFTC arguing the agency does not have authority over sports wagering offered through prediction markets.
That leaves several open questions for the industry heading into another NFL season: how much betting volume will move to U.S.-legal prediction market products, whether regulators will align consumer-protection rules across platforms, and how much sportsbook tax revenue states could lose if that shift continues.
Source: As reported by urban.org.
