Sports betting in Missouri appeared to be a done deal, but now the result of that referendum is suddenly in question. Initial vote counts out of Missouri showed Amendment 2, which legalizes sports betting in the state, passing by a narrow margin. However, outstanding absentee and provisional ballots could be enough to swing things the other way and might prompt requests for a statewide recount on the issue.
That exact situation is playing out, as updated vote totals have seemingly put the vote within the allowable margin for a possible recount. Still, it’s far from certain that a recount will happen. Even if it does, the additional votes may not be enough to reverse the outcome. But in the meantime, there are sudden question marks hanging over the latest state to join the trend toward legal sportsbooks.
State officials will have to announce a recall soon if it’s going to happen, as Missouri’s certification deadline is Dec. 10. Regardless of the fate of a potential recount, the narrowness of the vote on Amendment 2 suggests that gaming expansion proponents in Missouri should move deliberately.
Ballot updates cast doubt on referendum
According to Rudi Keller of the Missouri Independent, updates from multiple Missouri counties have changed the vote count on Amendment 2. Amendment 2 legalizes sports wagering in Missouri, both in-person and online, along with establishing a basic framework for the gaming vertical.
An unofficial tally after Election Day showed the vote in favor of Amendment 2 by a margin of about 7,500 votes across the state. Keller reports that the margin has since shrunk to a mere 720 votes after multiple counties reported their final totals.
Counties have until Dec. 10 to submit their final vote counts. Most of what election officials have reported since Election Day has been absentee, military, and provisional ballots.
Missouri law allows for a recount when referendum votes come down to the wire like this. That isn’t a foregone conclusion at this point, though.
Recount possible, but not required
Missouri law allows for recounts on statewide votes if the final vote tallies are within 0.5%. That said, it does not require a recount under any circumstances. The recount will only occur if someone demands one and can show that it’s warranted.
Opponents of Amendment 2 could request a recount, but the onus would be on them to convince current Missouri Secretary of State Jay Aschcroft that one is necessary. Even if they are successful, a recount might not change the initial result.
Many of the most populated counties in the state had yet to certify their results as of the time of this article. Outstanding ballots in those places could simply bump Amendment 2’s margin of victory higher, perhaps outside the margin for a recount request.
Tabulation is taking longer in 2024 because Missouri implemented a two-week “no excuse” absentee voting period for the first time. That resulted in higher number of such ballots and some precincts lacked the infrastructure to count all the votes in a more expedient manner.
Should the final margin remain within half a percent, Missouri courts could come into play. Whether it’s Amendment 2 supporters attempting to stop a recount or opponents trying to force a recount, courts may weigh in on who the law allows to make a request and other legal issues.
It’s extraordinarily rare for referendum results to be overturned by a recount. However, even if Amendment 2 survives a challenge, the slim margin by which it passed and the resulting uncertainty stand as a message to the industry.
Further expansion likely a long time off
If the gaming industry emerges successfully from this precarious situation, it will likely realize that the time isn’t right to pursue further gambling expansion in the state. With the vote in favor but by a mere few hundred ballots out of over three million cast in Missouri in 2024, public sentiment on gaming expansion seems sharply divided.
In other states, online casino legislation has proven to be a much bigger lift than sports betting. So, proposing the regulation of online casino play anytime soon looks like a bridge too far in Missouri. Regardless of the potential benefits to the state, the apparently lean appetite for gaming expansion is satiated for the moment.
The uncertainty around Amendment 2 could last for days if not weeks. Missourians shouldn’t start budgeting for their sports betting bankrolls just yet.
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