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Trump, Harris in Dead Heat as Kalshi’s Election Betting Market Opens
Political prediction exchange Kalshi reopened its 2024 general election markets this morning following a favorable court decision. Those markets now include contracts on the outcome of the Presidential race, and speculators appear to see it as a coin flip between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. The market opened at 8:15 a.m. ET on Oct. […]
Lawmakers Urge CFTC to Implement New Rules Against Election Betting Before November
Eight Democratic lawmakers are urging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to enforce a May proposal to prohibit US election predictions on platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi. The lawmakers include five US Senators and three House Representatives: Jeffrey A. Merkley, Senator from Oregon Sheldon Whitehouse, Senator from Rhode Island Elizabeth Warren, Senator from Massachusetts Chris […]
PredictIt Lawsuit: How a Battle Over Venue Might Determine the Fate of US Election Betting
PredictIt and its co-plaintiffs have asked a federal court in Texas to postpone the case’s transfer to the District of Columbia while petitioning the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals to intervene. The US District Court for the Western District of Texas ordered the transfer on Jan. 16, 2024, at the request of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In […]
Senators Oppose Latest Political Futures Effort by Kalshi
A renewed effort by retail-focused futures provider Kalshi to offer markets on congressional elections currently before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has attracted the scrutiny of watchdogs and lawmakers, including Senators Elizabeth Warren, Jeff Markley, and Dianne Feinstein. Kalshi is a regulated exchange that allows customers to trade on the outcome of events. Examples […]
PredictIt Lives On as Fifth Circuit Remands Case to District Court With Preliminary Injunction
By order of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, PredictIt and its co-plaintiffs will have their case heard in District Court, and the political futures market may continue to operate until it concludes. The Fifth Circuit panel issued the decision on July 21 following a split 2-1 vote. Judge Stuart Duncan penned the majority opinion, […]
CFTC to Fifth Circuit: PredictIt Plaintiffs’ Lack Standing, Injuries Not Cognizable
Lawyers for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) submitted a new document to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals on June 28, drawing the court’s attention to a recent Supreme Court decision. The CFTC feels that the ruling in United States v. Texas is pertinent to its attempts to get the court to dismiss the PredictIt case. On the surface, […]
Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals Issues Order Against Mootness in PredictIt Case
In a memorandum dated May 1, the three-judge panel of the US District Court for the Western District of Texas declared that the lawsuit to determine the fate of PredictIt should continue. Circuit judges James E. Graves, James C. Ho, and Kyle Duncan denied the “suggestion of mootness” filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the defendant in the case. The CFTC […]
PredictIt Temporarily Safe from Shutdown as CFTC Issues New Letter, Rendering Current Case Moot
In a surprise legal move, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has retracted its August 2022 letter to PredictIt, only to issue a new one. By doing so, it says it has rendered PredictIt’s request for a preliminary injunction moot. Although this likely means that PredictIt can continue operating for now, the CFTC has issued a new […]
Hopeful Signs for PredictIt Plaintiffs Following Oral Arguments in Fifth Circuit
It’s starting to look like the political futures market PredictIt may get to continue operating. Oral arguments in the legal battle to save the site took place in the Fifth Circuit on Feb. 8. According to reporting by Courthouse News, two of the three judges appeared inclined to side with PredictIt’s supporters, who are the plaintiffs in the […]
Fifth Circuit Grants Injunction for PredictIt to Continue Operating Past Feb 15
The plaintiffs in the PredictIt case have obtained an injunction to keep the site up and running temporarily. That’s an essential reprieve with the original Feb 15 shutdown deadline now less than three weeks away. On Jan 18, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans laid out a timeline for the case. PredictIt, […]
