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Around 11:15 a.m. ET on Feb. 24, a Kalshi trader bought 113,648 contracts on the bull side (i.e., the “Yes” side) of the “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” market at 26 cents. This trade — $29,548.48 in total — constitutes the largest bull-side trade in the history of this market, which has existed since Dec. 5.
The trade comes less than 12 hours before the 2026 State of the Union address.
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Defining “Existence”: The Fine Print of the Universe
To make good on the investment, our trader will need someone in the executive branch of the federal government to definitively state that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before the end of the calendar year.
Given these parameters, the phrase “definitively state” presumably carries significant weight. Kalshi’s official rule set defines definitive statements as “official releases of the Executive Branch,” including “statements by individuals in their capacity as an official of the Executive Branch.”
Thus, any interstellar speculation made outside an official capacity — like former President Barack Obama’s comments about aliens on the No Lie podcast last week or President Trump’s UFO-related Truth Social post on Thursday — will not be counted as definitive statements.
In addition to President Trump, Kalshi counts the following as members of the executive branch:
Any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
Put simply, any official statements about aliens made by Trump or the aforementioned individuals/institutions before 2027 will satisfy the “Yes” requirement of the contract and trigger a payout.
How Much Does Our Trader Stand to Gain?
If we find out that extraterrestrial life/technology does exist (and we here at Bonus certainly hope it does—where are the bigfoot markets, anyway?), then our $30,000 trader would have their contracts fulfilled to the tune of $113,648, netting them $84,099.52. Not too bad. If only aliens had their currency pegged to the U.S. dollar. Who knows?
As of the publication of this article, the “Yes” side of this market peaked on Feb. 20 at 27.7 percent. It then drew down to 19.6% on Feb. 22 and has been experiencing low volatility growth over the last 48 hours.
State of the UFO-ion
The timing of this trade does feel notable. It makes you wonder if there’s some information circulating that indicates a bombshell may be dropped at tonight’s address.
For those interested, this prediction market is just one of many event contracts that are either directly or tangentially tied to the State of the Union. Others include “What will Trump Say during the State of the Union?”, “Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?”, and “What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?”.
If Trump not only mentions aliens but confirms their existence? That’s definitely a can of worms. I guess you could argue it’s not even the scariest topic that contains the letters “AI” right now, though that depends on who you ask.
If they are real, what kind of sweepstakes casinos do you think they like? So many questions, not enough Kalshi markets. My bet is on Sixty6, though maybe they find “Fiery Planet” to be an inaccurate representation of their existence.
Either way, our winning trader would be able to use some of his newfound wealth to interact with the cosmos through the reels. We can always ponder what it would be like to travel at the speed of light and wonder.
