Share 
Wall Street might be on the verge of getting a literal prediction market built directly into your everyday brokerage account.
On June 30, Cboe Global Markets, the exchange operator behind the world’s largest options market, filed a proposal to federal regulators asking the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for permission to list binary options tied entirely to corporate performance numbers.
Instead of just betting on whether a stock price goes up or down, investors could soon bet on the raw operational data itself.
If approved, traders could buy a contract on more than 100 KPIs across 23 companies, including Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Coinbase, SpaceX, JPMorgan Chase, and Robinhood. Each contract asks a single yes-or-no question: does the metric land above or below a set threshold? Get it right, the contract pays out. Get it wrong, it expires worthless.
What Cboe Is Actually Proposing
The company wants to introduce what it calls binary KPI options.
KPI stands for key performance indicators, which is simply Wall Street’s way of referring to important business metrics like revenue, profit, subscriber growth, or earnings per share.
A trader would buy a contract predicting whether a company’s results will come in above or below a figure. If the prediction is correct, the contract pays out. If it is wrong, it expires worthless.
Cboe’s filing with the commission reads:
“The Exchange proposes to amend its Rules to permit the listing of binary KPI options. Binary KPI options are European-style, cash-settled options contracts listed on an underlying KPI of an issuer whose exercise settlement value is determined not by the market price of the issuer’s stock but by whether a specific financial or operating metric reported by the issuer in an earnings-related filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the ‘Commission’) meets or exceeds a pre-specified strike level.”
Why This Is Different From a Kalshi or Polymarket Bet
Unlike platforms that have been getting into trouble over event betting, Cboe’s proposed contracts would trade on a regulated exchange and clear through the Options Clearing Corporation, the same institution that handles most listed options in the United States. They would also be available through mainstream brokerage platforms rather than niche prediction market sites.
That regulated structure is a major selling point for Cboe.
The proponents behind this push believe that investors already trade around earnings announcements every quarter through stocks and options. These new contracts would just offer another, and maybe easier, way to express an opinion.
Cboe’s Prediction Market Buildout Isn’t New
This filing extends a pattern Cboe started earlier in 2026 with Cboe Predicts, its platform for yes/no contracts on the Mini S&P 500 Index. Cboe has also been testing contracts with partial payouts, where landing close to the outcome — not just exactly right — still returns something.
Cboe isn’t working alone in this space, either. Nasdaq has already secured SEC approval for binary options tied to its major stock indexes, with contracts expected to launch later in 2026. Intercontinental Exchange, parent of the NYSE, is separately rolling out futures tied to Federal Reserve policy decisions and natural gas storage data. Every major exchange operator is racing to claim a piece of the event-contract market that Kalshi and Polymarket built their businesses on.
What Happens Next
The filing is a proposal, not an approval. The SEC now reviews it under standard rulemaking procedure, which typically includes a public comment period before any decision.
If the SEC signs off, earnings season could look different by 2027: instead of only trading a stock’s reaction to a beat or a miss, retail traders could take a direct, isolated position on the number that moved it — through the same brokerage account they already use.
