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Prediction markets spent weeks weighing in on the 98th Academy Awards. Now that the winners are official, it’s clear traders had a strong read on the biggest races. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket saw heavy traffic leading into the show, reflecting growing public interest in entertainment‑based forecasting. Below, we break down where the markets were spot‑on — and where they fell short.
Best Picture: Markets Called It Cleanly
Heading into Oscar night, both Kalshi and Polymarket priced “One Battle After Another” as the clear Best Picture favorite, with implied probabilities ranging from 74% to 79%.
That prediction aged well. The film won Best Picture and finished the night with six total awards, including Best Director and Adapted Screenplay.
Best Director: A Strong Consensus
Kalshi traders gave Paul Thomas Anderson an 88% chance of taking Best Director for One Battle After Another. That confidence was justified — Anderson won the category, contributing to the film’s dominant showing.
Best Actress: Buckley’s Win Was No Surprise
Prediction markets treated Jessie Buckley as one of the night’s biggest locks, with probabilities ranging from 88% to 97%. She delivered exactly as expected, winning Best Actress for her performance in Hamnet.
Best Actor: A Tight Race Markets Ultimately Got Right
Of all major categories, this was the most competitive. Kalshi’s pre‑show pricing showed:
- Michael B. Jordan – 56%
- Timothée Chalamet – 33%
Jordan ultimately won Best Actor for Sinners, validating the market’s narrow lead.
Supporting Categories: Limited Market Attention, Clear Outcomes
Prediction markets didn’t generate the same volume in supporting categories, but the results still tell an interesting story:
- Sean Penn won Best Supporting Actor for One Battle After Another.
- Amy Madigan earned Best Supporting Actress for Weapons.
These mirrored industry expectations even without the heavy trading activity seen in top categories.
Historic Wins Markets Didn’t Fully Capture
While markets excelled in the headline races, they didn’t anticipate several of the night’s biggest milestones:
- Sinners cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw became the first woman ever to win Best Cinematography.
- The Best Live‑Action Short Film category ended in a rare tie, the first since 2013.
- KPop Demon Hunters made history as the first K‑pop film to win Best Original Song for “Golden.”
These outcomes highlight a gap: prediction markets remain strongest where liquidity, attention, and prior awards data are deepest.
Bottom Line: Prediction Markets Had a Very Good Oscars Night
Across Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress, prediction markets finished a perfect 4-for‑4. Their accuracy in high‑profile categories — combined with the record $100M+ trading volume — shows how deeply entertainment forecasting has become woven into big cultural moments.
And if this year’s growth is any indication, the Oscars may soon rival major sports and elections as one of the biggest annual events in the prediction‑market landscape.
