After the Supreme Court abortion ruling eliminating the right to abortion, 15 states banned all or most abortions immediately or will ban all or most of them within 30 days. Another five are likely to ban it shortly. Despite this consequential decision, PredictIt’s balance of power market still predicts a Republican House and Senate in 2022.
The price of a Republican sweep of Congress has dropped a little. A Republican sweep went from 76 cents on June 23 to 73 cents on Jun 24. The price has stabilized at 72 cents.
Democratic prices move less. The price on a Republican House and Democratic Senate rose from 18 cents to 21 cents after the Supreme Court decision. The prices on a Democratic House or a Democrat sweep of Congress remained stable. They’re so unlikely that they’re less affected by major electoral events.
This was one of two market shocks in PredictIt’s balance of power market. The first shock was the leaked Supreme Court draft leak at the beginning of May. The price of a Republican Congress dropped six cents in a day. Trading volumes also spiked to over 73,000 trades on the day of the release. Trading volume on Roe v. Wade’s overturning was only over 41,000 trades. Trading volume was high, but the shock was greater after the draft leak than the overturning itself.
Politics After The Supreme Court Abortion Ruling
Republicans are still favored to win the midterms. That’s partially because the voting public hasn’t grasped the importance of abortion protections.
Abortion opponents and even some supporters may have forgotten why the fight to protect the right to an abortion was so important. News outlets and activists understand the implications of Roe’s overturning. But it’ll take a fresh round of horror stories to remind the voting public what was lost with Roe.
The voting public still has to see the first story of a young professional who dies a preventable death from a simple surgery. Or a doctor who’s imprisoned for performing a life-saving surgery. Or a sexually abused child forced to carry her child to term — whether the girl and fetus both survive or not. The voting public won’t fight for abortion until they see concrete examples of why that right was so important.
Victory For Trump’s Republican Party
Democrats also have to contend with the perception that Donald Trump gets results for conservative Republicans. This conservative victory was possible because of his presidency and three confirmed Supreme Court justices. Trump can pitch himself as an effective voice for conservative America. When he decides to run, conservative rulings will be part of a legacy he can pitch to Republicans inside and outside of his base.
Republicans will also be able to revel in conservative rulings on other hot-button issues. Recent rulings expanding gun rights and allowing prayer at school are victories that Republicans can hawk at campaign rallies. They can be used to fire conservative voters up and convince moderate voters that Republicans can get results.
Democrats will be passionate in their responses to these conservative victories. But Democrats will be fighting the spin Republicans put on these victories, not just the effects of those victories.