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Chris Gerlacher
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Virginia Responsible Gambling Groundwork Built with Pre-Filed Bill
On Dec 27, 2022, Delegate Paul Krizek (D) and Senator Bryce Reeves (R) of Virginia pre-filed bills to create a Problem Gambling Advisory Committee (PGAC). The committee members would include gambling regulators, industry representatives, and community service members. The PGAC’s goal would be to seek alignment between experts on problem gambling and the Virginia gaming […]
New York Casinos Could Offer Job Opportunities for Those With Criminal Records
On Dec 6, the New York Senate sent a bill to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s desk that would allow certain people with felony convictions to apply for jobs in the gambling industry. It would remove barriers for such candidates to apply for the necessary gaming and employee licenses. The bill still automatically disqualifies applicants whose criminal […]
Why In-Person Registration Will Cost Illinois Online Casinos
In Mar. 2021, Illinois sent an online casino bill to the state’s House Rules committee. Though that effort stalled, we’ll likely see a similar push in 2023. One unfortunate feature of the original Internet Gaming Act is a six-month window during which in-person registration would be mandatory for Illinois online casinos. That means bettors would have […]
Betting Strategy for Election Markets & Uncertainty
Now that the midterms are over, major election races have been settled. Many of the Senate races have been settled with the winner priced at 99 cents on PredictIt and the loser at one cent. Analyzing what bettors missed in these races can inform betting strategy for election markets in the 2024 presidential race. However, […]
Donald Trump Election Odds Before & After the Midterms
The Donald Trump election odds were high before the midterms. High inflation with rising interest rates made groceries more expensive and borrowing funds for homes and school more difficult. The challenging economy seemed to doom Democratic chances of holding both chambers of Congress. Historical midterm losses pointed to a Republican Congress. Instead, Democrats held the […]
How PredictIt Prices Flipped During 2022 Midterms
Democrats fared better on election night than expected. Republicans are still expected to retake the House of Representatives, but Democrats have a chance to hold onto the Senate. PredictIt prices flipped on election night, and the balance of power market’s overround hit a high of 13 cents. Small changes in Election Night expectations have resulted […]
Impact of Election Deniers on Election Betting
Two days after Joe Biden’s inauguration, the Independent Betting Adjudication Service (IBAS) in the United Kingdom released a statement defending the right of UK sportsbooks to settle 2020 presidential election bets. The impact of election deniers it stated in part: “Following the inauguration ceremony on 20th January 2021, we can see no reason why […]
The Threat of Political Violence in Upcoming Elections
Political violence is on the rise in the United States. Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, was attacked in his San Fransisco home by an assailant who hoped to kidnap and torture Nancy Pelosi. This is the latest attack in a string of politically-motivated threats. In June 2022, a Wisconsin judge was killed in his home […]
Why PredictIt Odds Suddenly Favor Republican Control of Congress
PredictIt’s prices have swung dramatically in favor of Republican control of Congress. On October 16, the price of a Republican Congress was only five cents higher than a Republican House with a Democratic Senate. On October 25, the price of a Republican Congress was 42 cents higher. The Republican sweep rose from 47 cents to […]
How a Stolen Election Really Looks — And Why 2020 Was Legit
There are a few ways to manufacture a stolen election. In countries like Iran, hardline clerics can disqualify candidates who challenge them. That allows only a narrow range of views into office. The Economist reports that of the 600 candidates who applied to run for the Iranian presidency, only seven were allowed on the ballot. […]