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With states across the country trying to override the federal rules on prediction markets, it was high time the man at the top stepped in to settle the score.
On January 29, 2026, the new Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman, Michael Selig, came to finally clear the air about who really runs the show for prediction markets.
While speaking alongside Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins at the CFTC headquarters in DC, Selig made it clear the “Wild West” era of state-by-state bans is about to come to an end.
“These markets are not new. They’ve operated within the CFTC’s regulatory parameter for more than two decades now. But despite their history, many view them as novel or unsettled, and that uncertainty has not served our markets well, nor has it served the public interest,” ” Selig said.
The policy u-turn
The biggest news was Selig’s total reversal on how the government handles these markets.
He officially directed his staff to withdraw a 2024 proposal that would have banned sports and political contracts entirely. He also threw out a 2025 staff advisory that had been scaring companies away from offering sports bets due to legal drama.
Selig admitted that the old way of “regulation by enforcement” where the government basically sued people without giving them a rulebook was failing everyone. Instead of trying to kill the market, he wants to build a framework that actually works for 2026 and beyond.
Who runs the market?
Right now, dozens of states are trying to treat these sites as “unregulated casinos.”
Selig isn’t having any of it. He said that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over these products because they are commodity derivatives, not just simple bets.
He even told his team to look at jumping into current court cases to defend the federal government’s power.
Project crypto and the new rulebook
Selig isn’t just flying solo. He and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced a new partnership called “Project Crypto.” The goal is to stop the two agencies from tripping over each other. If it’s a commodity, it’s Selig’s problem; if it’s security, it’s Atkins’ problem.
Selig’s plan is to draft brand-new rules that are “future-proof,” allowing companies to be creative without fearing a surprise lawsuit every other Tuesday.
Where do we go from here?
No doubt the mood in the industry has completely moved from panic to excitement. Kalshi and the likes can take a break from pilling up future lawsuit money.
At the same time, traditional gaming groups are likely feeling the pressure, while the Coalition for Prediction Markets is already celebrating the move.
“We applaud Chairman Selig’s statements that the CFTC has ‘the expertise and responsibility to defend its exclusive jurisdiction’ over event contracts, and we welcome the participation of the Commission in matters where that jurisdiction is under attack…. We look forward to working with the CFTC to continue that important mission,” the Coalition for Prediction Markets said in a press statement.
The next step is the actual writing of the new rulebook. Selig wants durable standards that protect people while letting the industry grow.
