Latest articles
PredictIt Scores A Minor Win At Court Of Appeals, Avoiding Dismissal
Hope springs eternal for PredictIt, as the Commodities & Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has failed in its attempt to have the former’s court case thrown out. Those following the PredictIt saga know that as things stand, the site will have to shut down next month. That’s due to the CFTC’s revocation of a no-action letter […]
Magistrate Judge Recommends Change of Venue for PredictIt Case, Denies Supplemental Memorandum
As the rest of us were enjoying the holidays, the PredictIt case was heating up. The flurry of activity began with a report and recommendation from the US Magistrate Judge who heard the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) motion to transfer the case from Austin to a federal court in DC. The CFTC is the […]
Plaintiffs File Motion For Supplemental Memorandum in PredictIt Suit
Plaintiffs in the litigation challenging the looming shutdown of PredictIt have filed a motion to allow for a supplemental memorandum. PredictIt’s fate has been in jeopardy since the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) withdrew the No-Action letter allowing the election prediction market to operate. A federal court heard oral arguments for the case on […]
Plaintiffs Look to Fast-Track PredictIt Suit as CFTC Seeks Dismissal
Things have heated up quickly since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit seeking to avert PredictIt‘s shutdown. The plaintiffs countered with a motion seeking to expedite the hearing. They’re hoping to obtain a preliminary injunction before Christmas. Without judicial intervention, the site will need to shut down by […]
Reports Suggest CFTC Likely to Deny Prediction Contracts on Political Outcomes
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has not yet officially ruled on whether it will allow Kalshi to offer political contracts. However, there are multiple reports circulating that the agency’s staff has recommended against it. Kalshi is what’s known colloquially as a predictions market, meaning users trade shares whose value is tied to real-world events. Staffers have […]
AOC Supposedly Among Voices of Support for Prediction Markets as CFTC Mulls Kalshi’s Request
The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has an important decision ahead of it. Kalshi, an online predictions market, has requested the right to offer contracts on the outcome of the upcoming midterms. It will receive its answer tomorrow, October 28. Complicating matters for the CFTC is that it has just asked PredictIt, which has been offering a […]
PredictIt Seeks Injunction to Allow Existing Markets to Reach Their Natural Conclusion
PredictIt continues to wrestle with the problem of how to resolve outstanding markets when it’s forced to shut down in February. But first, it’s trying to avoid that situation entirely. The electoral predictions site had been operating under the grace of a No-Action letter from the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to the Victoria University of Wellington. […]
PredictIt Fires Back At CFTC With A Lawsuit Challenging Shutdown
In August, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reversed the decision that has allowed the election prediction market site PredictIt to operate. Now, a lawsuit is underway to keep the site up and running. The CFTC sent a letter to the site operators, indicating that the agency was revoking its No-Action letter. That earlier letter […]
PredictIt’s Status in Jeopardy After CFTC Withdraws No-Action Letter
Experimental predictions market site PredictIt may eventually be forced to shut down. The site, which allows users to buy and sell “shares” in political propositions, has operated since 2014 under the grace of a “No-Action Letter” from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That agency has now withdrawn its tentative permission. A no-action letter is […]
New Senate Minority Leader Possible After Supreme Court Decisions
Conservative victories at the Supreme Court may not be enough keep Mitch McConnell the Senate minority leader. The Roe v. Wade draft leak in May shocked the PredictIt balance of power market. The price of a Republican sweep of Congress dropped by seven cents, and Democratic markets rose five cents. Prices steadied but unambiguously favored […]
