Latest articles
Supreme Court Abortion Ruling Doesn’t Change Midterm Outlook
After the Supreme Court abortion ruling eliminating the right to abortion, 15 states banned all or most abortions immediately or will ban all or most of them within 30 days. Another five are likely to ban it shortly. Despite this consequential decision, PredictIt’s balance of power market still predicts a Republican House and Senate in […]
Texas Secession Doesn’t Affect PredictIt Balance Of Power Market
Texas State Republican Convention called for a referendum on Texas secession and declared Joe Biden an illegitimate president. Nothing in the Convention seemed to impact PredictIt’s balance of power or presidential markets. It’s not surprising that Texas secession didn’t move PredictIt markets. Secession is a local issue that doesn’t snowball into a national issue. It doesn’t […]
January 6 Hearings Fail To Change PredictIt Markets
The first January 6 hearings were held on Thursday, June 9 and Monday, June 13. These hearings into the origins of the January 6 Capitol riot gave the public new information, including: Proud Boys’ and Oath Keepers’ instigation of the day’s violence Police body camera footage of rioters attacking police officers Testimony from one […]
Make Better 2022 Midterm Predictions By Using Instead Of Reading Odds
Taking PredictIt odds at face value is the wrong way to use PredictIt. As a prediction market, its prices have highs and lows that can be taken advantage of. Those highs and lows come from other users’ expectations. Since anyone can use PredictIt, there’s no reason to think one user is better than another. That […]
How To Catch Causes Of Political Change Before The Media
Political bettors who can catch on to the causes of political change before those changes show up in poll results can get a big win for themselves. Political and social change can be hard to catch before it shows up at the ballot box. But the signs of early transformations are on the ground for […]
